Recent Democratic House primary results reflect elevated incumbent vulnerability driven by progressive challenges and generational turnover. Multiple sitting members fell to DSA-aligned or younger candidates in safe districts, including defeats of Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, and Shri Thanedar in Michigan, alongside redistricting-induced losses in Texas and an age-focused upset of John Larson in Connecticut. These outcomes, concentrated in the first half of the 2026 cycle, have already produced seven Democratic primary defeats—among the higher totals in recent decades without widespread redistricting. Trader consensus around 10-12 total losses aligns with this pattern of left-leaning insurgencies and anti-incumbent sentiment persisting through remaining contests. Additional defeats could push totals higher if late-cycle challenges succeed, while unexpectedly strong performances by establishment candidates in the final races represent the main path to a lower count.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$53,614 交易量
$53,614 交易量
10-12
95%
13-15
4%
$53,614 交易量
$53,614 交易量
10-12
$11,332 交易量
95%
13-15
$5,277 交易量
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Recent Democratic House primary results reflect elevated incumbent vulnerability driven by progressive challenges and generational turnover. Multiple sitting members fell to DSA-aligned or younger candidates in safe districts, including defeats of Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, and Shri Thanedar in Michigan, alongside redistricting-induced losses in Texas and an age-focused upset of John Larson in Connecticut. These outcomes, concentrated in the first half of the 2026 cycle, have already produced seven Democratic primary defeats—among the higher totals in recent decades without widespread redistricting. Trader consensus around 10-12 total losses aligns with this pattern of left-leaning insurgencies and anti-incumbent sentiment persisting through remaining contests. Additional defeats could push totals higher if late-cycle challenges succeed, while unexpectedly strong performances by establishment candidates in the final races represent the main path to a lower count.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
交易量
$53,614市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Recent Democratic House primary results reflect elevated incumbent vulnerability driven by progressive challenges and generational turnover. Multiple sitting members fell to DSA-aligned or younger candidates in safe districts, including defeats of Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, and Shri Thanedar in Michigan, alongside redistricting-induced losses in Texas and an age-focused upset of John Larson in Connecticut. These outcomes, concentrated in the first half of the 2026 cycle, have already produced seven Democratic primary defeats—among the higher totals in recent decades without widespread redistricting. Trader consensus around 10-12 total losses aligns with this pattern of left-leaning insurgencies and anti-incumbent sentiment persisting through remaining contests. Additional defeats could push totals higher if late-cycle challenges succeed, while unexpectedly strong performances by establishment candidates in the final races represent the main path to a lower count.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
交易量
$53,614市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETRecent Democratic House primary results reflect elevated incumbent vulnerability driven by progressive challenges and generational turnover. Multiple sitting members fell to DSA-aligned or younger candidates in safe districts, including defeats of Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, and Shri Thanedar in Michigan, alongside redistricting-induced losses in Texas and an age-focused upset of John Larson in Connecticut. These outcomes, concentrated in the first half of the 2026 cycle, have already produced seven Democratic primary defeats—among the higher totals in recent decades without widespread redistricting. Trader consensus around 10-12 total losses aligns with this pattern of left-leaning insurgencies and anti-incumbent sentiment persisting through remaining contests. Additional defeats could push totals higher if late-cycle challenges succeed, while unexpectedly strong performances by establishment candidates in the final races represent the main path to a lower count.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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