Iran's recent categorical denial on May 11 that it has agreed to any removal or transfer of enriched uranium, combined with official statements from Iranian lawmakers and Atomic Energy Organization officials that domestic enrichment remains a non-negotiable right, has reinforced trader expectations that no binding agreement to halt enrichment will be reached by May 31. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated indirectly through Pakistan, continue to stall over the duration of any potential moratorium and verification of existing stockpiles, with Tehran rejecting proposals for long-term suspension in favor of shorter timelines or regional arrangements. This firm positioning, consistent with Iran's historical red lines in nuclear diplomacy, underpins the 96.5 percent implied probability for "No." A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or major concession in the final weeks before the deadline could still shift outcomes, though current evidence points to persistent barriers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$629,239 交易量
$629,239 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$629,239 交易量
$629,239 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's recent categorical denial on May 11 that it has agreed to any removal or transfer of enriched uranium, combined with official statements from Iranian lawmakers and Atomic Energy Organization officials that domestic enrichment remains a non-negotiable right, has reinforced trader expectations that no binding agreement to halt enrichment will be reached by May 31. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated indirectly through Pakistan, continue to stall over the duration of any potential moratorium and verification of existing stockpiles, with Tehran rejecting proposals for long-term suspension in favor of shorter timelines or regional arrangements. This firm positioning, consistent with Iran's historical red lines in nuclear diplomacy, underpins the 96.5 percent implied probability for "No." A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or major concession in the final weeks before the deadline could still shift outcomes, though current evidence points to persistent barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
交易量
$629,239结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's recent categorical denial on May 11 that it has agreed to any removal or transfer of enriched uranium, combined with official statements from Iranian lawmakers and Atomic Energy Organization officials that domestic enrichment remains a non-negotiable right, has reinforced trader expectations that no binding agreement to halt enrichment will be reached by May 31. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated indirectly through Pakistan, continue to stall over the duration of any potential moratorium and verification of existing stockpiles, with Tehran rejecting proposals for long-term suspension in favor of shorter timelines or regional arrangements. This firm positioning, consistent with Iran's historical red lines in nuclear diplomacy, underpins the 96.5 percent implied probability for "No." A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or major concession in the final weeks before the deadline could still shift outcomes, though current evidence points to persistent barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$629,239结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's recent categorical denial on May 11 that it has agreed to any removal or transfer of enriched uranium, combined with official statements from Iranian lawmakers and Atomic Energy Organization officials that domestic enrichment remains a non-negotiable right, has reinforced trader expectations that no binding agreement to halt enrichment will be reached by May 31. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated indirectly through Pakistan, continue to stall over the duration of any potential moratorium and verification of existing stockpiles, with Tehran rejecting proposals for long-term suspension in favor of shorter timelines or regional arrangements. This firm positioning, consistent with Iran's historical red lines in nuclear diplomacy, underpins the 96.5 percent implied probability for "No." A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or major concession in the final weeks before the deadline could still shift outcomes, though current evidence points to persistent barriers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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