Following the 2026 Iran war that began with U.S.-Israeli strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, internal power struggles have intensified among hardliners, reformists, and military factions. Accusations of coup plotting surfaced in July 2026 during disputes over a U.S. truce and succession, with figures like Mahmoud Nabavian warning of internal challenges to Mojtaba Khamenei. No widely reported military coup attempt has occurred as of mid-August, contributing to trader consensus assigning low implied probability to a resolution by year-end. Key variables include ongoing diplomatic pressures, elite factional dynamics, and any escalation in protests or leadership transitions that could trigger verifiable action. Scheduled international negotiations or further strikes within the resolution window could shift assessments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,115,813 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
12%
$2,115,813 交易量
12月31日
$74,587 交易量
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the 2026 Iran war that began with U.S.-Israeli strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, internal power struggles have intensified among hardliners, reformists, and military factions. Accusations of coup plotting surfaced in July 2026 during disputes over a U.S. truce and succession, with figures like Mahmoud Nabavian warning of internal challenges to Mojtaba Khamenei. No widely reported military coup attempt has occurred as of mid-August, contributing to trader consensus assigning low implied probability to a resolution by year-end. Key variables include ongoing diplomatic pressures, elite factional dynamics, and any escalation in protests or leadership transitions that could trigger verifiable action. Scheduled international negotiations or further strikes within the resolution window could shift assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
交易量
$2,115,813结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Following the 2026 Iran war that began with U.S.-Israeli strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, internal power struggles have intensified among hardliners, reformists, and military factions. Accusations of coup plotting surfaced in July 2026 during disputes over a U.S. truce and succession, with figures like Mahmoud Nabavian warning of internal challenges to Mojtaba Khamenei. No widely reported military coup attempt has occurred as of mid-August, contributing to trader consensus assigning low implied probability to a resolution by year-end. Key variables include ongoing diplomatic pressures, elite factional dynamics, and any escalation in protests or leadership transitions that could trigger verifiable action. Scheduled international negotiations or further strikes within the resolution window could shift assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,115,813结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the 2026 Iran war that began with U.S.-Israeli strikes and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, internal power struggles have intensified among hardliners, reformists, and military factions. Accusations of coup plotting surfaced in July 2026 during disputes over a U.S. truce and succession, with figures like Mahmoud Nabavian warning of internal challenges to Mojtaba Khamenei. No widely reported military coup attempt has occurred as of mid-August, contributing to trader consensus assigning low implied probability to a resolution by year-end. Key variables include ongoing diplomatic pressures, elite factional dynamics, and any escalation in protests or leadership transitions that could trigger verifiable action. Scheduled international negotiations or further strikes within the resolution window could shift assessments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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