The high probability traders assign to no coup attempt by June 30 reflects the Iranian regime’s continued consolidation of power under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps following the February 2026 conflict and leadership decapitation strikes. Recent official statements from senior figures, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, have stressed national unity and preparations to manage economic pressures from sanctions and the naval blockade, with the Supreme National Security Council reportedly convening to address potential unrest. Iranian forces have focused on reconstituting military capabilities during the extended ceasefire without reports of organized internal challenges to authority. This positioning aligns with the regime’s historical ability to suppress dissent and maintain institutional control through security institutions, absent verifiable developments indicating factional moves toward a coup in the near term.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$1,127,931 交易量
$1,127,931 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$1,127,931 交易量
$1,127,931 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high probability traders assign to no coup attempt by June 30 reflects the Iranian regime’s continued consolidation of power under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps following the February 2026 conflict and leadership decapitation strikes. Recent official statements from senior figures, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, have stressed national unity and preparations to manage economic pressures from sanctions and the naval blockade, with the Supreme National Security Council reportedly convening to address potential unrest. Iranian forces have focused on reconstituting military capabilities during the extended ceasefire without reports of organized internal challenges to authority. This positioning aligns with the regime’s historical ability to suppress dissent and maintain institutional control through security institutions, absent verifiable developments indicating factional moves toward a coup in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$1,127,931结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high probability traders assign to no coup attempt by June 30 reflects the Iranian regime’s continued consolidation of power under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps following the February 2026 conflict and leadership decapitation strikes. Recent official statements from senior figures, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, have stressed national unity and preparations to manage economic pressures from sanctions and the naval blockade, with the Supreme National Security Council reportedly convening to address potential unrest. Iranian forces have focused on reconstituting military capabilities during the extended ceasefire without reports of organized internal challenges to authority. This positioning aligns with the regime’s historical ability to suppress dissent and maintain institutional control through security institutions, absent verifiable developments indicating factional moves toward a coup in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,127,931结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high probability traders assign to no coup attempt by June 30 reflects the Iranian regime’s continued consolidation of power under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps following the February 2026 conflict and leadership decapitation strikes. Recent official statements from senior figures, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, have stressed national unity and preparations to manage economic pressures from sanctions and the naval blockade, with the Supreme National Security Council reportedly convening to address potential unrest. Iranian forces have focused on reconstituting military capabilities during the extended ceasefire without reports of organized internal challenges to authority. This positioning aligns with the regime’s historical ability to suppress dissent and maintain institutional control through security institutions, absent verifiable developments indicating factional moves toward a coup in the near term.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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