Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 after the Assembly of Experts elected him supreme leader in early March 2026, shortly following the assassination of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the opening phase of the 2026 Iran war. The selection, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reinforced hardline continuity in an opaque process that activated Article 111 of the constitution and sidelined interim council figures such as Alireza Arafi. Recent missile exchanges and diplomatic rebukes from the United States have heightened regime focus on internal cohesion, though the wartime environment leaves room for shifts from military escalation, health events, or elite fractures before year-end. Traders view Mojtaba's institutional ties and recent consolidation as the dominant base rate, with lower-priced alternatives reflecting residual uncertainty over long-term stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 64.9%
礼萨·巴列维 8%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫 4.6%
没有国家元首 2.8%
$8,657,206 交易量
$8,657,206 交易量
2026-12-31
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
65%
礼萨·巴列维
8%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫
5%
没有国家元首
3%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
2%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
2%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
2%
哈桑·鲁哈尼
1%
马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德
1%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
1%
纳维德·肖马利
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
1%
玛丽亚姆·拉贾维
1%
马苏德·拉贾维
1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔
1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
<1%
萨德格·拉里贾尼
<1%
阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐
<1%
穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里
<1%
哈桑·沙里亚特马达里
<1%
雷扎·皮尔扎德
<1%
穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪
<1%
赛义德·贾利利
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
<1%
赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
<1%
萨德格·马赫苏利
<1%
纳西尔·侯赛因尼
<1%
艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼
<1%
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 64.9%
礼萨·巴列维 8%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫 4.6%
没有国家元首 2.8%
$8,657,206 交易量
$8,657,206 交易量
2026-12-31
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
$2,076,951 交易量
65%
礼萨·巴列维
$208,762 交易量
8%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫
$228,215 交易量
5%
没有国家元首
$488,164 交易量
3%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
$213,768 交易量
2%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
$299,316 交易量
2%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
$326,254 交易量
2%
哈桑·鲁哈尼
$353,230 交易量
1%
马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德
$142,570 交易量
1%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
$860,892 交易量
1%
纳维德·肖马利
$87,163 交易量
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
$813,099 交易量
1%
玛丽亚姆·拉贾维
$318,646 交易量
1%
马苏德·拉贾维
$75,414 交易量
1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔
$90,845 交易量
1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
$448,007 交易量
<1%
萨德格·拉里贾尼
$195,597 交易量
<1%
阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐
$93,219 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里
$290,404 交易量
<1%
哈桑·沙里亚特马达里
$179,711 交易量
<1%
雷扎·皮尔扎德
$52,010 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪
$100,091 交易量
<1%
赛义德·贾利利
$83,015 交易量
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
$64,445 交易量
<1%
赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安
$52,716 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
$33,414 交易量
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
$87,072 交易量
<1%
萨德格·马赫苏利
$74,398 交易量
<1%
纳西尔·侯赛因尼
$39,291 交易量
<1%
艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼
$43,666 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 after the Assembly of Experts elected him supreme leader in early March 2026, shortly following the assassination of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the opening phase of the 2026 Iran war. The selection, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reinforced hardline continuity in an opaque process that activated Article 111 of the constitution and sidelined interim council figures such as Alireza Arafi. Recent missile exchanges and diplomatic rebukes from the United States have heightened regime focus on internal cohesion, though the wartime environment leaves room for shifts from military escalation, health events, or elite fractures before year-end. Traders view Mojtaba's institutional ties and recent consolidation as the dominant base rate, with lower-priced alternatives reflecting residual uncertainty over long-term stability.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
交易量
$8,657,206结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 after the Assembly of Experts elected him supreme leader in early March 2026, shortly following the assassination of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the opening phase of the 2026 Iran war. The selection, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reinforced hardline continuity in an opaque process that activated Article 111 of the constitution and sidelined interim council figures such as Alireza Arafi. Recent missile exchanges and diplomatic rebukes from the United States have heightened regime focus on internal cohesion, though the wartime environment leaves room for shifts from military escalation, health events, or elite fractures before year-end. Traders view Mojtaba's institutional ties and recent consolidation as the dominant base rate, with lower-priced alternatives reflecting residual uncertainty over long-term stability.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$8,657,206结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 after the Assembly of Experts elected him supreme leader in early March 2026, shortly following the assassination of his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during the opening phase of the 2026 Iran war. The selection, backed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reinforced hardline continuity in an opaque process that activated Article 111 of the constitution and sidelined interim council figures such as Alireza Arafi. Recent missile exchanges and diplomatic rebukes from the United States have heightened regime focus on internal cohesion, though the wartime environment leaves room for shifts from military escalation, health events, or elite fractures before year-end. Traders view Mojtaba's institutional ties and recent consolidation as the dominant base rate, with lower-priced alternatives reflecting residual uncertainty over long-term stability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题