Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus at 65% for Iran's top leadership role by the end of 2026, driven by his March 2026 selection as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This outcome aligns with the constitutional process that transferred authority through a three-member interim council before a permanent vote, drawing on Mojtaba's established ties to security institutions and clerical networks. Ongoing regional conflicts and questions about leadership visibility have introduced some uncertainty into longer-term positioning, while other listed figures such as Reza Pahlavi and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf remain lower-probability alternatives tied to opposition or institutional roles. Scheduled diplomatic and military developments through late 2026 could still influence final resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 65.0%
礼萨·巴列维 8%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫 4.3%
没有国家元首 2.9%
$8,652,913 交易量
$8,652,913 交易量
2026-12-31
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
65%
礼萨·巴列维
8%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫
4%
没有国家元首
3%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
2%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
2%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
2%
哈桑·鲁哈尼
1%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
1%
纳维德·肖马利
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
1%
玛丽亚姆·拉贾维
1%
马苏德·拉贾维
1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔
1%
马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
<1%
萨德格·拉里贾尼
<1%
阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐
<1%
穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里
<1%
哈桑·沙里亚特马达里
<1%
雷扎·皮尔扎德
<1%
穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪
<1%
赛义德·贾利利
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
<1%
赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
<1%
萨德格·马赫苏利
<1%
纳西尔·侯赛因尼
<1%
艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼
<1%
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊 65.0%
礼萨·巴列维 8%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫 4.3%
没有国家元首 2.9%
$8,652,913 交易量
$8,652,913 交易量
2026-12-31
莫吉塔巴·哈梅内伊
$2,076,878 交易量
65%
礼萨·巴列维
$208,762 交易量
8%
穆罕默德-巴盖尔·加利巴夫
$228,162 交易量
4%
没有国家元首
$488,123 交易量
3%
阿巴斯·阿拉格奇
$213,713 交易量
2%
艾哈迈德·瓦希迪
$299,316 交易量
2%
马苏德·佩泽什基安
$326,254 交易量
2%
哈桑·鲁哈尼
$352,998 交易量
1%
阿里雷扎·阿拉菲
$860,892 交易量
1%
纳维德·肖马利
$87,163 交易量
1%
哈桑·霍梅尼
$813,099 交易量
1%
玛丽亚姆·拉贾维
$318,646 交易量
1%
马苏德·拉贾维
$75,414 交易量
1%
戈拉姆-阿里·哈达德-阿德尔
$90,845 交易量
1%
马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德
$138,736 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·哈塔米
$448,007 交易量
<1%
萨德格·拉里贾尼
$195,597 交易量
<1%
阿里·阿斯加尔·赫贾齐
$93,219 交易量
<1%
穆罕默德·米尔巴奇里
$290,404 交易量
<1%
哈桑·沙里亚特马达里
$179,711 交易量
<1%
雷扎·皮尔扎德
$52,010 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·普尔穆罕默迪
$100,091 交易量
<1%
赛义德·贾利利
$83,015 交易量
<1%
穆赫森·阿拉基
$64,445 交易量
<1%
赛义德·侯赛因·穆萨维安
$52,716 交易量
<1%
穆斯塔法·希吉里
$33,414 交易量
<1%
阿里·莫塔哈里
$87,072 交易量
<1%
萨德格·马赫苏利
$74,398 交易量
<1%
纳西尔·侯赛因尼
$39,291 交易量
<1%
艾哈迈德·侯赛尼·呼罗珊尼
$43,666 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus at 65% for Iran's top leadership role by the end of 2026, driven by his March 2026 selection as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This outcome aligns with the constitutional process that transferred authority through a three-member interim council before a permanent vote, drawing on Mojtaba's established ties to security institutions and clerical networks. Ongoing regional conflicts and questions about leadership visibility have introduced some uncertainty into longer-term positioning, while other listed figures such as Reza Pahlavi and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf remain lower-probability alternatives tied to opposition or institutional roles. Scheduled diplomatic and military developments through late 2026 could still influence final resolution.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
市场开放时间： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
交易量
$8,652,913结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus at 65% for Iran's top leadership role by the end of 2026, driven by his March 2026 selection as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This outcome aligns with the constitutional process that transferred authority through a three-member interim council before a permanent vote, drawing on Mojtaba's established ties to security institutions and clerical networks. Ongoing regional conflicts and questions about leadership visibility have introduced some uncertainty into longer-term positioning, while other listed figures such as Reza Pahlavi and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf remain lower-probability alternatives tied to opposition or institutional roles. Scheduled diplomatic and military developments through late 2026 could still influence final resolution.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$8,652,913结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei leads trader consensus at 65% for Iran's top leadership role by the end of 2026, driven by his March 2026 selection as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts following the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This outcome aligns with the constitutional process that transferred authority through a three-member interim council before a permanent vote, drawing on Mojtaba's established ties to security institutions and clerical networks. Ongoing regional conflicts and questions about leadership visibility have introduced some uncertainty into longer-term positioning, while other listed figures such as Reza Pahlavi and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf remain lower-probability alternatives tied to opposition or institutional roles. Scheduled diplomatic and military developments through late 2026 could still influence final resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题