Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities at Parchin, leaving enrichment infrastructure inoperable and much of the highly enriched uranium stockpile buried under rubble. IAEA inspectors withdrew after the initial strikes, with verification activities halted and no confirmed resumption of uranium enrichment or weaponization work. Iranian officials have reaffirmed commitments against nuclear weapons development via a 2026 memorandum, while reconstruction efforts remain limited and monitored by satellite imagery showing incomplete or uncertain progress. With only months remaining before 2027, these setbacks create substantial barriers to conducting a nuclear test. A rapid recovery of buried material combined with covert assembly could theoretically alter the outcome, though such scenarios face significant technical and operational hurdles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$246,407 交易量
$246,407 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$246,407 交易量
$246,407 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities at Parchin, leaving enrichment infrastructure inoperable and much of the highly enriched uranium stockpile buried under rubble. IAEA inspectors withdrew after the initial strikes, with verification activities halted and no confirmed resumption of uranium enrichment or weaponization work. Iranian officials have reaffirmed commitments against nuclear weapons development via a 2026 memorandum, while reconstruction efforts remain limited and monitored by satellite imagery showing incomplete or uncertain progress. With only months remaining before 2027, these setbacks create substantial barriers to conducting a nuclear test. A rapid recovery of buried material combined with covert assembly could theoretically alter the outcome, though such scenarios face significant technical and operational hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$246,407结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities at Parchin, leaving enrichment infrastructure inoperable and much of the highly enriched uranium stockpile buried under rubble. IAEA inspectors withdrew after the initial strikes, with verification activities halted and no confirmed resumption of uranium enrichment or weaponization work. Iranian officials have reaffirmed commitments against nuclear weapons development via a 2026 memorandum, while reconstruction efforts remain limited and monitored by satellite imagery showing incomplete or uncertain progress. With only months remaining before 2027, these setbacks create substantial barriers to conducting a nuclear test. A rapid recovery of buried material combined with covert assembly could theoretically alter the outcome, though such scenarios face significant technical and operational hurdles.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$246,407结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities at Parchin, leaving enrichment infrastructure inoperable and much of the highly enriched uranium stockpile buried under rubble. IAEA inspectors withdrew after the initial strikes, with verification activities halted and no confirmed resumption of uranium enrichment or weaponization work. Iranian officials have reaffirmed commitments against nuclear weapons development via a 2026 memorandum, while reconstruction efforts remain limited and monitored by satellite imagery showing incomplete or uncertain progress. With only months remaining before 2027, these setbacks create substantial barriers to conducting a nuclear test. A rapid recovery of buried material combined with covert assembly could theoretically alter the outcome, though such scenarios face significant technical and operational hurdles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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