Military strikes by the United States and Israel in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering them largely inoperable according to satellite assessments and IAEA reports. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran remains roughly nine to twelve months from producing a nuclear weapon, with no evidence of resumed proliferation-sensitive activities or a structured weaponization program. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no indication of systematic efforts to build or test a device. These developments, combined with continued monitoring of unaffected sites and Iran's lack of concrete progress toward a testable nuclear device, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$192,428 交易量
$192,428 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$192,428 交易量
$192,428 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Military strikes by the United States and Israel in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering them largely inoperable according to satellite assessments and IAEA reports. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran remains roughly nine to twelve months from producing a nuclear weapon, with no evidence of resumed proliferation-sensitive activities or a structured weaponization program. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no indication of systematic efforts to build or test a device. These developments, combined with continued monitoring of unaffected sites and Iran's lack of concrete progress toward a testable nuclear device, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$192,428结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Military strikes by the United States and Israel in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering them largely inoperable according to satellite assessments and IAEA reports. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran remains roughly nine to twelve months from producing a nuclear weapon, with no evidence of resumed proliferation-sensitive activities or a structured weaponization program. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no indication of systematic efforts to build or test a device. These developments, combined with continued monitoring of unaffected sites and Iran's lack of concrete progress toward a testable nuclear device, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$192,428结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Military strikes by the United States and Israel in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering them largely inoperable according to satellite assessments and IAEA reports. U.S. intelligence assessments from May 2026 indicate Iran remains roughly nine to twelve months from producing a nuclear weapon, with no evidence of resumed proliferation-sensitive activities or a structured weaponization program. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated there is no indication of systematic efforts to build or test a device. These developments, combined with continued monitoring of unaffected sites and Iran's lack of concrete progress toward a testable nuclear device, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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