Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and related sites in 2025 and early 2026 inflicted substantial damage to enrichment infrastructure and weaponization-related locations, extending timelines for producing weapons-grade material according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. Limited inspections, restricted access to stockpiles, and no verified large-scale resumption of enrichment activities have reinforced trader views that a test remains distant before 2027. Ongoing diplomatic contacts and statements reaffirming non-weaponization commitments further support this positioning. Undetected recovery efforts at buried or hardened sites, a leadership decision to accelerate weaponization, or rapid stockpile reconstitution could still shift outcomes within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
5% 概率
$246,407 交易量
$246,407 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 概率
$246,407 交易量
$246,407 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and related sites in 2025 and early 2026 inflicted substantial damage to enrichment infrastructure and weaponization-related locations, extending timelines for producing weapons-grade material according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. Limited inspections, restricted access to stockpiles, and no verified large-scale resumption of enrichment activities have reinforced trader views that a test remains distant before 2027. Ongoing diplomatic contacts and statements reaffirming non-weaponization commitments further support this positioning. Undetected recovery efforts at buried or hardened sites, a leadership decision to accelerate weaponization, or rapid stockpile reconstitution could still shift outcomes within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$246,407结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and related sites in 2025 and early 2026 inflicted substantial damage to enrichment infrastructure and weaponization-related locations, extending timelines for producing weapons-grade material according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. Limited inspections, restricted access to stockpiles, and no verified large-scale resumption of enrichment activities have reinforced trader views that a test remains distant before 2027. Ongoing diplomatic contacts and statements reaffirming non-weaponization commitments further support this positioning. Undetected recovery efforts at buried or hardened sites, a leadership decision to accelerate weaponization, or rapid stockpile reconstitution could still shift outcomes within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$246,407结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and related sites in 2025 and early 2026 inflicted substantial damage to enrichment infrastructure and weaponization-related locations, extending timelines for producing weapons-grade material according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. Limited inspections, restricted access to stockpiles, and no verified large-scale resumption of enrichment activities have reinforced trader views that a test remains distant before 2027. Ongoing diplomatic contacts and statements reaffirming non-weaponization commitments further support this positioning. Undetected recovery efforts at buried or hardened sites, a leadership decision to accelerate weaponization, or rapid stockpile reconstitution could still shift outcomes within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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