Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, including those in June 2025 targeting Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with follow-on 2026 operations against weaponization sites and key personnel, have significantly degraded Iran’s uranium enrichment and nuclear infrastructure. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate these actions extended the timeline for Iran to produce and test a nuclear device to roughly nine to twelve months, with no detected resumption of enrichment or reconstruction at struck facilities. IAEA inspections continue to highlight access limitations and the absence of a structured weapons program, while diplomatic channels remain focused on managing highly enriched uranium stockpiles and regional tensions. Traders assign high probability to no test occurring before 2027 because rebuilding weaponization capabilities faces substantial technical, material, and military hurdles amid sustained international scrutiny.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$192,428 交易量
$192,428 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$192,428 交易量
$192,428 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, including those in June 2025 targeting Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with follow-on 2026 operations against weaponization sites and key personnel, have significantly degraded Iran’s uranium enrichment and nuclear infrastructure. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate these actions extended the timeline for Iran to produce and test a nuclear device to roughly nine to twelve months, with no detected resumption of enrichment or reconstruction at struck facilities. IAEA inspections continue to highlight access limitations and the absence of a structured weapons program, while diplomatic channels remain focused on managing highly enriched uranium stockpiles and regional tensions. Traders assign high probability to no test occurring before 2027 because rebuilding weaponization capabilities faces substantial technical, material, and military hurdles amid sustained international scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$192,428结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, including those in June 2025 targeting Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with follow-on 2026 operations against weaponization sites and key personnel, have significantly degraded Iran’s uranium enrichment and nuclear infrastructure. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate these actions extended the timeline for Iran to produce and test a nuclear device to roughly nine to twelve months, with no detected resumption of enrichment or reconstruction at struck facilities. IAEA inspections continue to highlight access limitations and the absence of a structured weapons program, while diplomatic channels remain focused on managing highly enriched uranium stockpiles and regional tensions. Traders assign high probability to no test occurring before 2027 because rebuilding weaponization capabilities faces substantial technical, material, and military hurdles amid sustained international scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$192,428结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, including those in June 2025 targeting Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with follow-on 2026 operations against weaponization sites and key personnel, have significantly degraded Iran’s uranium enrichment and nuclear infrastructure. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate these actions extended the timeline for Iran to produce and test a nuclear device to roughly nine to twelve months, with no detected resumption of enrichment or reconstruction at struck facilities. IAEA inspections continue to highlight access limitations and the absence of a structured weapons program, while diplomatic channels remain focused on managing highly enriched uranium stockpiles and regional tensions. Traders assign high probability to no test occurring before 2027 because rebuilding weaponization capabilities faces substantial technical, material, and military hurdles amid sustained international scrutiny.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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