Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account continues issuing statements after his confirmed death in February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes, with activity now managed by institutional channels. Traders assign the highest probability (72.5%) to fewer than five posts in the August 21-28 window because the account has maintained low-volume output in recent months absent acute crises or scheduled addresses. The next tier (5-9 posts at 21.5%) captures scenarios with routine religious or policy commentary. No major diplomatic summits, military developments, or institutional announcements are confirmed for that specific interval, reinforcing expectations of subdued frequency consistent with post-transition patterns on the platform.