Trader consensus assigns a 95.8% probability that no Kurdish groups will declare independence from Iran by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any formal secessionist move despite early-2026 unrest. Iranian Kurdish parties formed the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan in February to pursue regime change and self-determination, yet their statements and actions have prioritized overthrowing central authority over territorial separation. Subsequent Iranian security operations, including IRGC actions against cross-border networks in late April, further suppressed momentum while the groups remain fragmented and lack unified military capacity or external backing. No developments in the past 30 days have altered this positioning. A shift remains possible only under scenarios such as complete regime collapse or sustained large-scale foreign intervention that enables coordinated uprisings across Kurdish-majority provinces.