Recent forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models project a daily low near 18°C in Beijing on September 22 under mostly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, supporting radiative cooling that is moderated by residual warmth from the prior day’s 29°C high. This places the outcome squarely between the market’s dominant 12°C-or-below and 22°C-or-higher buckets, whose near-even implied probabilities reflect trader awareness of typical 1–2°C model spread in short-range guidance and the narrow historical range of September minimums around 14–16°C. Light winds and high humidity overnight limit further cooling, while any unexpected clear-sky development could push readings lower; conversely, stronger southerly flow would favor the warmer tail. Updated model runs and official Beijing Meteorological Service briefings in the next 24 hours remain the key variables for resolution.