**Current forecasts for Busan indicate a daily minimum temperature near 25–26 °C on August 25, consistent with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those exact outcomes.** Late-summer conditions feature high humidity (often 70–90 %) and light winds that limit overnight radiative cooling, while the ocean's thermal inertia keeps coastal lows elevated compared to inland areas. Recent model runs show mostly clear to mostly sunny skies through the 25th, supporting modest cooling to the mid-20s °C after daytime highs near 32–34 °C, with dew points remaining in the mid-20s and preventing sharper drops. Differentiation among the leading probabilities hinges on small variations in cloud cover, wind direction (southwesterly flow versus lighter northerly shifts), and boundary-layer mixing: clearer conditions favor the 25 °C outcome through enhanced long-wave radiation loss, whereas residual humidity or brief cloud increases could hold the minimum at 26 °C. Broader seasonal context shows August lows in Busan typically range 24–27 °C, and the absence of incoming typhoons or strong frontal systems in the next 48 hours supports the tight clustering around these values. Updated guidance from agencies such as the Korea Meteorological Administration or ensemble model runs over the next day will provide the clearest signal for any shifts in trader sentiment.