**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 14°C low for Moscow on August 21, 2026, at 99% implied probability, reflecting broad agreement among weather models and official forecasts that this will be the day's minimum temperature.** Authoritative guidance from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and global models (including GFS ensembles) points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, with the thermometer bottoming out near 12–14°C in the city proper after daytime highs of 22–24°C. Southwesterly winds shifting westerly at 6–11 m/s, combined with moderate humidity and atmospheric pressure around 746–748 mmHg, limit further cooling while supporting the consensus minimum. Historical August climatology for Moscow (typical lows near 12–15°C) aligns with these conditions, reinforcing trader confidence in the 14°C outcome as the most likely recorded low across official stations. Realistic challenges include clearer-than-expected skies enhancing radiative cooling to push readings to 12–13°C, localized variations at measurement sites, or late forecast revisions from updated model runs showing stronger advection of cooler air. With the day well underway, additional data releases or real-time observations could still introduce minor shifts before final resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月21日莫斯科最低气温？
8月21日莫斯科最低气温？
14°C 100.0%
10°C 1.0%
12°C 1.0%
13°C 1.0%
$9,752 交易量
$9,752 交易量
2026-08-21
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
10°C 1.0%
12°C 1.0%
13°C 1.0%
$9,752 交易量
$9,752 交易量
2026-08-21
9°C or below
$289 交易量
No
10°C
$207 交易量
No
11°C
$200 交易量
No
12°C
$122 交易量
No
13°C
$42 交易量
No
14°C
$145 交易量
Yes
15°C
$294 交易量
No
16°C
$8,008 交易量
No
17°C
$160 交易量
No
18°C
$140 交易量
No
19°C or higher
$145 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 14°C low for Moscow on August 21, 2026, at 99% implied probability, reflecting broad agreement among weather models and official forecasts that this will be the day's minimum temperature.**
Authoritative guidance from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and global models (including GFS ensembles) points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, with the thermometer bottoming out near 12–14°C in the city proper after daytime highs of 22–24°C. Southwesterly winds shifting westerly at 6–11 m/s, combined with moderate humidity and atmospheric pressure around 746–748 mmHg, limit further cooling while supporting the consensus minimum. Historical August climatology for Moscow (typical lows near 12–15°C) aligns with these conditions, reinforcing trader confidence in the 14°C outcome as the most likely recorded low across official stations.
Realistic challenges include clearer-than-expected skies enhancing radiative cooling to push readings to 12–13°C, localized variations at measurement sites, or late forecast revisions from updated model runs showing stronger advection of cooler air. With the day well underway, additional data releases or real-time observations could still introduce minor shifts before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
交易量
$9,752结束日期
2026-08-21市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 14°C low for Moscow on August 21, 2026, at 99% implied probability, reflecting broad agreement among weather models and official forecasts that this will be the day's minimum temperature.**
Authoritative guidance from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and global models (including GFS ensembles) points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, with the thermometer bottoming out near 12–14°C in the city proper after daytime highs of 22–24°C. Southwesterly winds shifting westerly at 6–11 m/s, combined with moderate humidity and atmospheric pressure around 746–748 mmHg, limit further cooling while supporting the consensus minimum. Historical August climatology for Moscow (typical lows near 12–15°C) aligns with these conditions, reinforcing trader confidence in the 14°C outcome as the most likely recorded low across official stations.
Realistic challenges include clearer-than-expected skies enhancing radiative cooling to push readings to 12–13°C, localized variations at measurement sites, or late forecast revisions from updated model runs showing stronger advection of cooler air. With the day well underway, additional data releases or real-time observations could still introduce minor shifts before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$9,752结束日期
2026-08-21市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 14°C low for Moscow on August 21, 2026, at 99% implied probability, reflecting broad agreement among weather models and official forecasts that this will be the day's minimum temperature.** Authoritative guidance from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and global models (including GFS ensembles) points to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, with the thermometer bottoming out near 12–14°C in the city proper after daytime highs of 22–24°C. Southwesterly winds shifting westerly at 6–11 m/s, combined with moderate humidity and atmospheric pressure around 746–748 mmHg, limit further cooling while supporting the consensus minimum. Historical August climatology for Moscow (typical lows near 12–15°C) aligns with these conditions, reinforcing trader confidence in the 14°C outcome as the most likely recorded low across official stations. Realistic challenges include clearer-than-expected skies enhancing radiative cooling to push readings to 12–13°C, localized variations at measurement sites, or late forecast revisions from updated model runs showing stronger advection of cooler air. With the day well underway, additional data releases or real-time observations could still introduce minor shifts before final resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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