Since succeeding his father Ali Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following US-Israeli airstrikes that killed the elder leader, Mojtaba Khamenei has made no verified public appearance—only written statements read on state TV and disputed videos. Officials cite security risks amid ongoing conflict and minor injuries like kneecap damage, though Western reports allege severe burns requiring prosthetics, deepening doubts about his condition and influence. Traders reflect this uncertainty with just 6% implied probability for an appearance by May 31, prioritizing persistent war threats and IRGC dominance over visibility. US-Iran negotiations or de-escalation signals could shift odds, but reclusiveness remains the baseline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$1,574,621 交易量
2026-05-31
5月31日
4%
$1,574,621 交易量
5月31日
$345,833 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.Since succeeding his father Ali Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following US-Israeli airstrikes that killed the elder leader, Mojtaba Khamenei has made no verified public appearance—only written statements read on state TV and disputed videos. Officials cite security risks amid ongoing conflict and minor injuries like kneecap damage, though Western reports allege severe burns requiring prosthetics, deepening doubts about his condition and influence. Traders reflect this uncertainty with just 6% implied probability for an appearance by May 31, prioritizing persistent war threats and IRGC dominance over visibility. US-Iran negotiations or de-escalation signals could shift odds, but reclusiveness remains the baseline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
交易量
$1,574,621结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.Since succeeding his father Ali Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following US-Israeli airstrikes that killed the elder leader, Mojtaba Khamenei has made no verified public appearance—only written statements read on state TV and disputed videos. Officials cite security risks amid ongoing conflict and minor injuries like kneecap damage, though Western reports allege severe burns requiring prosthetics, deepening doubts about his condition and influence. Traders reflect this uncertainty with just 6% implied probability for an appearance by May 31, prioritizing persistent war threats and IRGC dominance over visibility. US-Iran negotiations or de-escalation signals could shift odds, but reclusiveness remains the baseline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
交易量
$1,574,621结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Since succeeding his father Ali Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following US-Israeli airstrikes that killed the elder leader, Mojtaba Khamenei has made no verified public appearance—only written statements read on state TV and disputed videos. Officials cite security risks amid ongoing conflict and minor injuries like kneecap damage, though Western reports allege severe burns requiring prosthetics, deepening doubts about his condition and influence. Traders reflect this uncertainty with just 6% implied probability for an appearance by May 31, prioritizing persistent war threats and IRGC dominance over visibility. US-Iran negotiations or de-escalation signals could shift odds, but reclusiveness remains the baseline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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