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政治·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
政治·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 45%

Petro - Colombia President 31%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.8%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%

Polymarket

$362,071 交易量

Starmer - UK PM 45%

Petro - Colombia President 31%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.8%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%

Polymarket

$362,071 交易量

Starmer - UK PM

$20,838 交易量

45%

Petro - Colombia President

$18,577 交易量

31%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,954 交易量

10%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$21,669 交易量

2%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$15,974 交易量

1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,491 交易量

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$16,748 交易量

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$15,986 交易量

1%

None before 2027

$19,089 交易量

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,549 交易量

1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,236 交易量

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,365 交易量

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,713 交易量

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$13,028 交易量

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,305 交易量

<1%

Macron - France President

$12,174 交易量

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,720 交易量

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,495 交易量

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,388 交易量

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,234 交易量

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,374 交易量

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,205 交易量

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,900 交易量

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,251 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK political turbulence has elevated trader expectations that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will exit before 2027, with his leading 44% share reflecting Labour's heavy local election losses in May 2026, internal party rebellions involving dozens of MPs calling for his resignation, and analysts raising the odds of a leadership contest by summer. Colombia President Gustavo Petro holds the second position at 31.5% due to the constitutionally mandated end of his single term, with voters heading to the polls at the end of May and a new administration scheduled to take office by August. Lower probabilities for figures such as Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel at 9.7% align with fewer immediate catalysts like scheduled votes or confirmed challenges, while the slim chance assigned to no leader departing underscores the market's assessment of multiple near-term transitions. These prices capture the wisdom of crowds on verifiable timelines and institutional pressures amid ongoing uncertainty in several capitals.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$362,071
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK political turbulence has elevated trader expectations that Prime Minister Keir Starmer will exit before 2027, with his leading 44% share reflecting Labour's heavy local election losses in May 2026, internal party rebellions involving dozens of MPs calling for his resignation, and analysts raising the odds of a leadership contest by summer. Colombia President Gustavo Petro holds the second position at 31.5% due to the constitutionally mandated end of his single term, with voters heading to the polls at the end of May and a new administration scheduled to take office by August. Lower probabilities for figures such as Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel at 9.7% align with fewer immediate catalysts like scheduled votes or confirmed challenges, while the slim chance assigned to no leader departing underscores the market's assessment of multiple near-term transitions. These prices capture the wisdom of crowds on verifiable timelines and institutional pressures amid ongoing uncertainty in several capitals.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$362,071
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 24 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Starmer - UK PM"，概率为 45%，其次是"Petro - Colombia President"，概率为 31%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 45¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 45%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"已产生 $362.1K 的总交易量（自Apr 27, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 24 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"的当前领先者是"Starmer - UK PM"，概率为 45%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 45%。紧随其后的结果是"Petro - Colombia President"，概率为 31%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。