Traders see a 98.4% probability that Vladimir Putin will remain President of Russia through June 30, driven by his current six-year term extending to 2030 and the absence of any scheduled election or constitutional trigger for early departure. The State Duma, security services, and regional governors remain aligned with continuity, as evidenced by recent legislative actions and public statements reinforcing centralized authority. No major diplomatic shifts, health announcements, or elite defections have emerged in recent weeks to suggest otherwise. Scenarios that could still move the market include a sudden medical event or rapid deterioration in the Ukraine conflict prompting internal realignment, though both remain low-probability outcomes within the next six weeks based on established patterns of Russian leadership stability.