Putin's consolidated control over Russia's security apparatus, military command, and political institutions continues to underpin trader expectations of no coup attempt through the end of 2026. Enhanced personal protections and surveillance measures implemented since March 2026, prompted by intelligence concerns over figures like Sergei Shoigu, have not produced verifiable plots or elite fractures capable of execution. Recent polling shows sustained public support amid wartime economic pressures, while historical patterns of Russian leadership stability and the absence of organized opposition within key power centers reinforce the current 93.5% probability assigned to "No." Scheduled events or sudden shifts in Ukraine-related developments remain the primary variables that could alter this consensus before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7% 概率
$126,094 交易量
$126,094 交易量
2026-12-30
7% 概率
$126,094 交易量
$126,094 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin's consolidated control over Russia's security apparatus, military command, and political institutions continues to underpin trader expectations of no coup attempt through the end of 2026. Enhanced personal protections and surveillance measures implemented since March 2026, prompted by intelligence concerns over figures like Sergei Shoigu, have not produced verifiable plots or elite fractures capable of execution. Recent polling shows sustained public support amid wartime economic pressures, while historical patterns of Russian leadership stability and the absence of organized opposition within key power centers reinforce the current 93.5% probability assigned to "No." Scheduled events or sudden shifts in Ukraine-related developments remain the primary variables that could alter this consensus before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
交易量
$126,094结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin's consolidated control over Russia's security apparatus, military command, and political institutions continues to underpin trader expectations of no coup attempt through the end of 2026. Enhanced personal protections and surveillance measures implemented since March 2026, prompted by intelligence concerns over figures like Sergei Shoigu, have not produced verifiable plots or elite fractures capable of execution. Recent polling shows sustained public support amid wartime economic pressures, while historical patterns of Russian leadership stability and the absence of organized opposition within key power centers reinforce the current 93.5% probability assigned to "No." Scheduled events or sudden shifts in Ukraine-related developments remain the primary variables that could alter this consensus before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$126,094结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Putin's consolidated control over Russia's security apparatus, military command, and political institutions continues to underpin trader expectations of no coup attempt through the end of 2026. Enhanced personal protections and surveillance measures implemented since March 2026, prompted by intelligence concerns over figures like Sergei Shoigu, have not produced verifiable plots or elite fractures capable of execution. Recent polling shows sustained public support amid wartime economic pressures, while historical patterns of Russian leadership stability and the absence of organized opposition within key power centers reinforce the current 93.5% probability assigned to "No." Scheduled events or sudden shifts in Ukraine-related developments remain the primary variables that could alter this consensus before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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