Incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in São Paulo’s October 2026 gubernatorial race, with recent polls from firms including Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and Datafolha showing him leading first-round intentions by double-digit margins and approaching a potential outright majority. His established record in infrastructure and fiscal management, combined with a right-wing coalition anchored by the Republicanos and PSD, underpins broad voter consolidation ahead of the first-round vote. Fernando Haddad, positioned as the primary Workers’ Party challenger, trails consistently in head-to-head scenarios, while exploratory bids by Kim Kataguiri and others register single-digit support and remain unconfirmed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these polling trends and the structural advantages of incumbency four months before ballots open.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Tarcísio de Freitas 82%
金·卡塔古里 9.7%
Fernando Haddad 8.5%
Erika Hilton 1.8%
$26,317 交易量
$26,317 交易量
2026-10-04
Tarcísio de Freitas
82%
金·卡塔古里
10%
Fernando Haddad
9%
Erika Hilton
2%
Márcio França
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 82%
金·卡塔古里 9.7%
Fernando Haddad 8.5%
Erika Hilton 1.8%
$26,317 交易量
$26,317 交易量
2026-10-04
Tarcísio de Freitas
$11,929 交易量
82%
金·卡塔古里
$4,186 交易量
10%
Fernando Haddad
$3,970 交易量
9%
Erika Hilton
$3,589 交易量
2%
Márcio França
$2,644 交易量
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in São Paulo’s October 2026 gubernatorial race, with recent polls from firms including Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and Datafolha showing him leading first-round intentions by double-digit margins and approaching a potential outright majority. His established record in infrastructure and fiscal management, combined with a right-wing coalition anchored by the Republicanos and PSD, underpins broad voter consolidation ahead of the first-round vote. Fernando Haddad, positioned as the primary Workers’ Party challenger, trails consistently in head-to-head scenarios, while exploratory bids by Kim Kataguiri and others register single-digit support and remain unconfirmed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these polling trends and the structural advantages of incumbency four months before ballots open.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
交易量
$26,317结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in São Paulo’s October 2026 gubernatorial race, with recent polls from firms including Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and Datafolha showing him leading first-round intentions by double-digit margins and approaching a potential outright majority. His established record in infrastructure and fiscal management, combined with a right-wing coalition anchored by the Republicanos and PSD, underpins broad voter consolidation ahead of the first-round vote. Fernando Haddad, positioned as the primary Workers’ Party challenger, trails consistently in head-to-head scenarios, while exploratory bids by Kim Kataguiri and others register single-digit support and remain unconfirmed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these polling trends and the structural advantages of incumbency four months before ballots open.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$26,317结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in São Paulo’s October 2026 gubernatorial race, with recent polls from firms including Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and Datafolha showing him leading first-round intentions by double-digit margins and approaching a potential outright majority. His established record in infrastructure and fiscal management, combined with a right-wing coalition anchored by the Republicanos and PSD, underpins broad voter consolidation ahead of the first-round vote. Fernando Haddad, positioned as the primary Workers’ Party challenger, trails consistently in head-to-head scenarios, while exploratory bids by Kim Kataguiri and others register single-digit support and remain unconfirmed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these polling trends and the structural advantages of incumbency four months before ballots open.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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