The near-certain trader consensus against Trump departing the presidency by May 31 stems primarily from the absence of any active impeachment proceedings, resignation announcements, or qualifying health or incapacity events in the current administration. With the 119th Congress in session and no floor votes or committee actions underway on removal measures, structural timelines for either House impeachment followed by Senate trial or invocation of the 25th Amendment make rapid departure before the month’s end highly improbable. Historical patterns of presidential transitions further reinforce this view, as successful mid-term exits have required months of preparation and broad bipartisan support. Remaining pathways that could still shift the outcome include a sudden medical crisis triggering succession protocols or an unforeseen scandal prompting voluntary resignation, though both would need to unfold within the next two weeks to affect the market.