The implied probability exceeding 99 percent that President Trump remains in office past May 31 stems from the high constitutional thresholds for removal, including House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction vote, neither of which shows any active momentum or bipartisan backing in the current Congress. No recent legislative actions, health disclosures, or major scandals have surfaced to alter this baseline, consistent with historical patterns where midterm departures outside elections remain rare. Traders' consensus, informed by real-money positioning, factors in the administration's ongoing policy agenda and absence of imminent triggers within the narrow two-week window. Unanticipated developments such as sudden medical events or rapidly escalating controversies could still theoretically intervene before the deadline, though structural and political realities make such shifts improbable in the immediate term.