The heavily Democratic composition of the newly redrawn Texas 37th district, concentrated within Austin city limits after 2025 redistricting, underpins the 98.2% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, reflecting a partisan voting index exceeding D+30 and Greg Casar's strong primary performance as the Democratic nominee. Republican nominee Lauren Peña advanced from a May runoff but faces structural headwinds in a district where prior Democratic margins exceeded 60 points. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain limited to low-probability events such as a late candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or an unprecedented turnout surge, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate these are unlikely to shift the result by November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$41,882 交易量
$41,882 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
98%
共和党
2%
$41,882 交易量
$41,882 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$25,231 交易量
98%
共和党
$16,651 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of the newly redrawn Texas 37th district, concentrated within Austin city limits after 2025 redistricting, underpins the 98.2% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, reflecting a partisan voting index exceeding D+30 and Greg Casar's strong primary performance as the Democratic nominee. Republican nominee Lauren Peña advanced from a May runoff but faces structural headwinds in a district where prior Democratic margins exceeded 60 points. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain limited to low-probability events such as a late candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or an unprecedented turnout surge, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate these are unlikely to shift the result by November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$41,882结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of the newly redrawn Texas 37th district, concentrated within Austin city limits after 2025 redistricting, underpins the 98.2% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, reflecting a partisan voting index exceeding D+30 and Greg Casar's strong primary performance as the Democratic nominee. Republican nominee Lauren Peña advanced from a May runoff but faces structural headwinds in a district where prior Democratic margins exceeded 60 points. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain limited to low-probability events such as a late candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or an unprecedented turnout surge, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate these are unlikely to shift the result by November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$41,882结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic composition of the newly redrawn Texas 37th district, concentrated within Austin city limits after 2025 redistricting, underpins the 98.2% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, reflecting a partisan voting index exceeding D+30 and Greg Casar's strong primary performance as the Democratic nominee. Republican nominee Lauren Peña advanced from a May runoff but faces structural headwinds in a district where prior Democratic margins exceeded 60 points. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain limited to low-probability events such as a late candidate withdrawal due to health or scandal, or an unprecedented turnout surge, though historical patterns and current ratings indicate these are unlikely to shift the result by November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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