**U.S. nuclear test by...?** Traders assign low probabilities to a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 because the country has maintained a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, with the last underground detonation occurring that year. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with rivals prompted clarification from administration officials that activities would likely involve subcritical or non-yield-producing experiments rather than full-scale explosions, amid assessments that explosive readiness requires up to 36 months. Congressional oversight, Nevada state opposition, funding priorities for stockpile stewardship without dedicated test-site reactivation, and concerns over arms-control implications have further slowed momentum. Ongoing U.S.-Russia-China diplomatic frictions and New START expiration in February 2026 remain key variables that could influence future decisions, though no confirmed explosive test schedule has emerged.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$770,068 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
4%
$770,068 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,189 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$52,068 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear test by...?** Traders assign low probabilities to a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 because the country has maintained a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, with the last underground detonation occurring that year. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with rivals prompted clarification from administration officials that activities would likely involve subcritical or non-yield-producing experiments rather than full-scale explosions, amid assessments that explosive readiness requires up to 36 months. Congressional oversight, Nevada state opposition, funding priorities for stockpile stewardship without dedicated test-site reactivation, and concerns over arms-control implications have further slowed momentum. Ongoing U.S.-Russia-China diplomatic frictions and New START expiration in February 2026 remain key variables that could influence future decisions, though no confirmed explosive test schedule has emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$770,068结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**U.S. nuclear test by...?** Traders assign low probabilities to a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 because the country has maintained a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, with the last underground detonation occurring that year. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with rivals prompted clarification from administration officials that activities would likely involve subcritical or non-yield-producing experiments rather than full-scale explosions, amid assessments that explosive readiness requires up to 36 months. Congressional oversight, Nevada state opposition, funding priorities for stockpile stewardship without dedicated test-site reactivation, and concerns over arms-control implications have further slowed momentum. Ongoing U.S.-Russia-China diplomatic frictions and New START expiration in February 2026 remain key variables that could influence future decisions, though no confirmed explosive test schedule has emerged.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$770,068结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**U.S. nuclear test by...?** Traders assign low probabilities to a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 because the country has maintained a voluntary moratorium on such tests since 1992, with the last underground detonation occurring that year. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with rivals prompted clarification from administration officials that activities would likely involve subcritical or non-yield-producing experiments rather than full-scale explosions, amid assessments that explosive readiness requires up to 36 months. Congressional oversight, Nevada state opposition, funding priorities for stockpile stewardship without dedicated test-site reactivation, and concerns over arms-control implications have further slowed momentum. Ongoing U.S.-Russia-China diplomatic frictions and New START expiration in February 2026 remain key variables that could influence future decisions, though no confirmed explosive test schedule has emerged.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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