US sanctions targeting Cuban officials, military suppliers, and shipping networks, alongside President Trump's public remarks about potential naval movements near the island after operations elsewhere, have sustained market attention on bilateral tensions. Cuba's nationwide Moncada 2026 military exercises and reports of US reconnaissance flights and a Guantanamo port call reflect mutual preparations, while a foiled February infiltration attempt from Florida highlighted exile-linked plans that Cuban authorities linked to hopes of triggering external intervention. Trader consensus places low probability on qualifying US strikes or clashes by year-end, consistent with emphasis on economic measures and diplomatic signaling over direct military engagement to date. Scheduled congressional or SOUTHCOM developments could still influence assessments.