**Recent bilateral consultations and institutional mechanisms strongly support the elevated trader consensus on a US-China tariff agreement by year-end.** US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held talks in mid-to-late September 2026 on tariffs, trade flows, critical minerals, and AI guardrails, explicitly aimed at preparing outcomes for the Trump-Xi summit. These build on the May 2026 establishment of a US-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment, plus earlier reciprocal tariff reduction discussions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side. The current trade truce, which suspended certain tariffs and countermeasures until November 10, 2026, has created momentum for extension or formalization through targeted cuts on non-strategic items, agriculture, and energy products. Both sides have signaled continued engagement via official channels, with commitments on market access and supply-chain issues reinforcing expectations of a publicly announced mutual agreement before December 31. Traders price this path as highly probable given the scheduled high-level diplomacy and procedural frameworks already in place.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于91% 概率
$256,895 交易量
$256,895 交易量
2026-12-31
91% 概率
$256,895 交易量
$256,895 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Recent bilateral consultations and institutional mechanisms strongly support the elevated trader consensus on a US-China tariff agreement by year-end.**
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held talks in mid-to-late September 2026 on tariffs, trade flows, critical minerals, and AI guardrails, explicitly aimed at preparing outcomes for the Trump-Xi summit. These build on the May 2026 establishment of a US-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment, plus earlier reciprocal tariff reduction discussions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side.
The current trade truce, which suspended certain tariffs and countermeasures until November 10, 2026, has created momentum for extension or formalization through targeted cuts on non-strategic items, agriculture, and energy products. Both sides have signaled continued engagement via official channels, with commitments on market access and supply-chain issues reinforcing expectations of a publicly announced mutual agreement before December 31.
Traders price this path as highly probable given the scheduled high-level diplomacy and procedural frameworks already in place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市场开放时间： May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
交易量
$256,895结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Recent bilateral consultations and institutional mechanisms strongly support the elevated trader consensus on a US-China tariff agreement by year-end.**
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held talks in mid-to-late September 2026 on tariffs, trade flows, critical minerals, and AI guardrails, explicitly aimed at preparing outcomes for the Trump-Xi summit. These build on the May 2026 establishment of a US-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment, plus earlier reciprocal tariff reduction discussions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side.
The current trade truce, which suspended certain tariffs and countermeasures until November 10, 2026, has created momentum for extension or formalization through targeted cuts on non-strategic items, agriculture, and energy products. Both sides have signaled continued engagement via official channels, with commitments on market access and supply-chain issues reinforcing expectations of a publicly announced mutual agreement before December 31.
Traders price this path as highly probable given the scheduled high-level diplomacy and procedural frameworks already in place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$256,895结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET**Recent bilateral consultations and institutional mechanisms strongly support the elevated trader consensus on a US-China tariff agreement by year-end.** US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held talks in mid-to-late September 2026 on tariffs, trade flows, critical minerals, and AI guardrails, explicitly aimed at preparing outcomes for the Trump-Xi summit. These build on the May 2026 establishment of a US-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment, plus earlier reciprocal tariff reduction discussions covering roughly $30 billion in goods per side. The current trade truce, which suspended certain tariffs and countermeasures until November 10, 2026, has created momentum for extension or formalization through targeted cuts on non-strategic items, agriculture, and energy products. Both sides have signaled continued engagement via official channels, with commitments on market access and supply-chain issues reinforcing expectations of a publicly announced mutual agreement before December 31. Traders price this path as highly probable given the scheduled high-level diplomacy and procedural frameworks already in place.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题