Current National Hurricane Center outlooks show no tropical cyclones active in the Eastern or Central Pacific basins and explicitly forecast no formation over the next seven days amid a post-Genevieve lull. Warm sea-surface temperatures and an above-normal seasonal baseline (NOAA projects 15–22 named storms in the Eastern Pacific) support eventual activity, yet mid-level dry air, modest wind shear, and steering patterns are currently inhibiting genesis. Trader consensus at 79.5% for formation by August 14 therefore reflects residual model-spread uncertainty and the statistical frequency of early-August development rather than any confirmed disturbance. Updated NHC discussions and global model runs through the coming days will determine whether conditions shift before the resolution window closes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月14日之前，太平洋或中太平洋盆地是否会形成热带气旋？
8月14日之前，太平洋或中太平洋盆地是否会形成热带气旋？
80% 概率
最新
最新
2026-08-15
80% 概率
最新
最新
2026-08-15
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.Current National Hurricane Center outlooks show no tropical cyclones active in the Eastern or Central Pacific basins and explicitly forecast no formation over the next seven days amid a post-Genevieve lull. Warm sea-surface temperatures and an above-normal seasonal baseline (NOAA projects 15–22 named storms in the Eastern Pacific) support eventual activity, yet mid-level dry air, modest wind shear, and steering patterns are currently inhibiting genesis. Trader consensus at 79.5% for formation by August 14 therefore reflects residual model-spread uncertainty and the statistical frequency of early-August development rather than any confirmed disturbance. Updated NHC discussions and global model runs through the coming days will determine whether conditions shift before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
交易量
$798结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.Current National Hurricane Center outlooks show no tropical cyclones active in the Eastern or Central Pacific basins and explicitly forecast no formation over the next seven days amid a post-Genevieve lull. Warm sea-surface temperatures and an above-normal seasonal baseline (NOAA projects 15–22 named storms in the Eastern Pacific) support eventual activity, yet mid-level dry air, modest wind shear, and steering patterns are currently inhibiting genesis. Trader consensus at 79.5% for formation by August 14 therefore reflects residual model-spread uncertainty and the statistical frequency of early-August development rather than any confirmed disturbance. Updated NHC discussions and global model runs through the coming days will determine whether conditions shift before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
交易量
$798结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current National Hurricane Center outlooks show no tropical cyclones active in the Eastern or Central Pacific basins and explicitly forecast no formation over the next seven days amid a post-Genevieve lull. Warm sea-surface temperatures and an above-normal seasonal baseline (NOAA projects 15–22 named storms in the Eastern Pacific) support eventual activity, yet mid-level dry air, modest wind shear, and steering patterns are currently inhibiting genesis. Trader consensus at 79.5% for formation by August 14 therefore reflects residual model-spread uncertainty and the statistical frequency of early-August development rather than any confirmed disturbance. Updated NHC discussions and global model runs through the coming days will determine whether conditions shift before the resolution window closes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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