Recent KMA and international model guidance points to a peak temperature in Busan on August 9 near 31–33 °C, driven by the persistent North Pacific subtropical high and warm, humid southerly flow. Coastal sea breezes from the Korea Strait typically cap daytime maxima several degrees below inland values, while scattered afternoon convection or increasing cloud cover can further limit the high by 1–2 °C. Ongoing regional heatwave conditions support the upper end of the range, yet model spread on precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities between 30 °C and 33 °C. Updated short-range runs expected over the next 48 hours will narrow this uncertainty.