Ukrainian forces' Operation Vivaldi counteroffensive north of Lyman has reclaimed 150–250 square kilometers since May 2026, pushing Russian units of the 20th and 25th armies back across the Chornyi Zherebets River and disrupting plans to advance on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Russian attempts to infiltrate or storm the city earlier in the year failed to consolidate gains, with only limited flag-planting operations reported. Ukrainian drone strikes continue to target Russian infantry and equipment on the Lyman axis, while overall Russian territorial gains have slowed markedly from prior peaks. Both sides are now repositioning forces for potential follow-on fighting, with the front stabilized locally in Ukraine's favor as of mid-September. These battlefield shifts shape trader assessments of whether Russian forces can achieve full control by year-end deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Ukrainian forces maintain control over Lyman railroad station area, Russian capture unlikely
December 31 drops to 8%6%
By late September 2026, Ukrainian forces had made significant advances north and around Lyman, pushing Russian forces back and maintaining control over key areas including the railroad station, as confirmed by ISW and multiple sources, leading to a sharp decline in market belief of Russian capture by December 31, 2025.
Ukrainian forces hold Lyman railroad station, denying Russian capture by year-end
December 31 dips to 9%1%
By September 20, Ukrainian forces maintained control over Lyman and its railroad station, with no part of the station shaded red on ISW maps, indicating no Russian capture. This solidified the market's final low probability for Russian capture by December 31, 2026.




警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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