Current trader consensus on an 81.5% probability against a woman winning the 2028 presidential election reflects the early shape of both parties’ fields. Republican frontrunners JD Vance and Marco Rubio, along with other leading names such as Pete Hegseth, dominate early polling and betting markets, while Democratic speculation centers on Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg. Gretchen Whitmer explicitly ruled out a bid in May 2026, and Kamala Harris’s standing has declined after her 2024 loss. The limited number of prominent female contenders with national profiles or clear paths through primaries, combined with historical general-election results for women nominees, supports the current implied odds. No major candidate announcements or shifts have altered this positioning in recent weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,755 交易量
$11,755 交易量
2028-11-07
$11,755 交易量
$11,755 交易量
2028-11-07
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Current trader consensus on an 81.5% probability against a woman winning the 2028 presidential election reflects the early shape of both parties’ fields. Republican frontrunners JD Vance and Marco Rubio, along with other leading names such as Pete Hegseth, dominate early polling and betting markets, while Democratic speculation centers on Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg. Gretchen Whitmer explicitly ruled out a bid in May 2026, and Kamala Harris’s standing has declined after her 2024 loss. The limited number of prominent female contenders with national profiles or clear paths through primaries, combined with historical general-election results for women nominees, supports the current implied odds. No major candidate announcements or shifts have altered this positioning in recent weeks.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
市场开放时间： Feb 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
交易量
$11,755结束日期
2028-11-07市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Current trader consensus on an 81.5% probability against a woman winning the 2028 presidential election reflects the early shape of both parties’ fields. Republican frontrunners JD Vance and Marco Rubio, along with other leading names such as Pete Hegseth, dominate early polling and betting markets, while Democratic speculation centers on Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg. Gretchen Whitmer explicitly ruled out a bid in May 2026, and Kamala Harris’s standing has declined after her 2024 loss. The limited number of prominent female contenders with national profiles or clear paths through primaries, combined with historical general-election results for women nominees, supports the current implied odds. No major candidate announcements or shifts have altered this positioning in recent weeks.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
交易量
$11,755结束日期
2028-11-07市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current trader consensus on an 81.5% probability against a woman winning the 2028 presidential election reflects the early shape of both parties’ fields. Republican frontrunners JD Vance and Marco Rubio, along with other leading names such as Pete Hegseth, dominate early polling and betting markets, while Democratic speculation centers on Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg. Gretchen Whitmer explicitly ruled out a bid in May 2026, and Kamala Harris’s standing has declined after her 2024 loss. The limited number of prominent female contenders with national profiles or clear paths through primaries, combined with historical general-election results for women nominees, supports the current implied odds. No major candidate announcements or shifts have altered this positioning in recent weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题