The tight contest for Bahia governor in October 2026 stems from volatile polling between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent surveys showing swings such as a May Paraná Pesquisas result favoring Neto in first-round intentions. Traders price ACM Neto ahead at 47.5% amid his emphasis on administrative change and criticism of unfulfilled state commitments, while Rodrigues draws on incumbency advantages and party infrastructure to maintain support near 38%. This narrow gap reflects ongoing campaign dynamics five months out, including potential consolidation of smaller candidates and voter responses to economic conditions or candidate debates. Developments like new polling releases, major endorsements, or shifts in national political alignments could widen the margin ahead of the first-round vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 38%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,978 Vol.
$13,978 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
ACM Neto
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
38%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
ACM Neto 48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 38%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,978 Vol.
$13,978 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
ACM Neto
$3,766 Vol.
48%
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,844 Vol.
38%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$966 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for Bahia governor in October 2026 stems from volatile polling between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent surveys showing swings such as a May Paraná Pesquisas result favoring Neto in first-round intentions. Traders price ACM Neto ahead at 47.5% amid his emphasis on administrative change and criticism of unfulfilled state commitments, while Rodrigues draws on incumbency advantages and party infrastructure to maintain support near 38%. This narrow gap reflects ongoing campaign dynamics five months out, including potential consolidation of smaller candidates and voter responses to economic conditions or candidate debates. Developments like new polling releases, major endorsements, or shifts in national political alignments could widen the margin ahead of the first-round vote.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volumen
$13,978Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest for Bahia governor in October 2026 stems from volatile polling between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent surveys showing swings such as a May Paraná Pesquisas result favoring Neto in first-round intentions. Traders price ACM Neto ahead at 47.5% amid his emphasis on administrative change and criticism of unfulfilled state commitments, while Rodrigues draws on incumbency advantages and party infrastructure to maintain support near 38%. This narrow gap reflects ongoing campaign dynamics five months out, including potential consolidation of smaller candidates and voter responses to economic conditions or candidate debates. Developments like new polling releases, major endorsements, or shifts in national political alignments could widen the margin ahead of the first-round vote.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$13,978Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest for Bahia governor in October 2026 stems from volatile polling between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the Workers' Party and challenger ACM Neto of União Brasil, with recent surveys showing swings such as a May Paraná Pesquisas result favoring Neto in first-round intentions. Traders price ACM Neto ahead at 47.5% amid his emphasis on administrative change and criticism of unfulfilled state commitments, while Rodrigues draws on incumbency advantages and party infrastructure to maintain support near 38%. This narrow gap reflects ongoing campaign dynamics five months out, including potential consolidation of smaller candidates and voter responses to economic conditions or candidate debates. Developments like new polling releases, major endorsements, or shifts in national political alignments could widen the margin ahead of the first-round vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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