Incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a slim trader consensus edge at 52.5% over challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 48% for the October 4, 2026, first-round election, reflecting Bahia's entrenched PT dominance since 2007 despite recent polling volatility. The latest Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) shows ACM Neto leading stimulated first-round voting intentions 47.8% to 38.7%, with Jerônimo topping rejection at 37%, yet traders weigh incumbency advantages and undecided voters amid April's Quaest technical tie (41%-37%). High-stakes dynamics hinge on PT machine mobilization in strongholds, opposition gains in Salvador, potential runoff October 25, and catalysts like endorsements or debates that could widen gaps.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJerônimo Rodrigues 53%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$13,675 Vol.
$13,675 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
53%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 53%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$13,675 Vol.
$13,675 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,665 Vol.
53%
ACM Neto
$3,648 Vol.
48%
Kleber Rosa
$1,280 Vol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,937 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$965 Vol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,059 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,123 Vol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a slim trader consensus edge at 52.5% over challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 48% for the October 4, 2026, first-round election, reflecting Bahia's entrenched PT dominance since 2007 despite recent polling volatility. The latest Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) shows ACM Neto leading stimulated first-round voting intentions 47.8% to 38.7%, with Jerônimo topping rejection at 37%, yet traders weigh incumbency advantages and undecided voters amid April's Quaest technical tie (41%-37%). High-stakes dynamics hinge on PT machine mobilization in strongholds, opposition gains in Salvador, potential runoff October 25, and catalysts like endorsements or debates that could widen gaps.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volumen
$13,675Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a slim trader consensus edge at 52.5% over challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 48% for the October 4, 2026, first-round election, reflecting Bahia's entrenched PT dominance since 2007 despite recent polling volatility. The latest Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) shows ACM Neto leading stimulated first-round voting intentions 47.8% to 38.7%, with Jerônimo topping rejection at 37%, yet traders weigh incumbency advantages and undecided voters amid April's Quaest technical tie (41%-37%). High-stakes dynamics hinge on PT machine mobilization in strongholds, opposition gains in Salvador, potential runoff October 25, and catalysts like endorsements or debates that could widen gaps.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$13,675Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) holds a slim trader consensus edge at 52.5% over challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 48% for the October 4, 2026, first-round election, reflecting Bahia's entrenched PT dominance since 2007 despite recent polling volatility. The latest Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) shows ACM Neto leading stimulated first-round voting intentions 47.8% to 38.7%, with Jerônimo topping rejection at 37%, yet traders weigh incumbency advantages and undecided voters amid April's Quaest technical tie (41%-37%). High-stakes dynamics hinge on PT machine mobilization in strongholds, opposition gains in Salvador, potential runoff October 25, and catalysts like endorsements or debates that could widen gaps.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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