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Economy·Makroindikatoren

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

icon for China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
Economy·Makroindikatoren

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

Juli 16

Juli 16

4.6-4.9% 65%

4.3-4.6% 32.9%

4.9-5.2% 2.7%

4.0-4.3% <1%

Polymarket

$97,955 Vol.

4.6-4.9% 65%

4.3-4.6% 32.9%

4.9-5.2% 2.7%

4.0-4.3% <1%

Polymarket

$97,955 Vol.

<4.0%

$7,224 Vol.

<1%

4.0-4.3%

$10,376 Vol.

1%

4.3-4.6%

$11,972 Vol.

33%

4.6-4.9%

$21,916 Vol.

65%

4.9-5.2%

$11,742 Vol.

3%

5.2-5.5%

$9,661 Vol.

<1%

5.5-5.8%

$7,624 Vol.

<1%

5.8-6.1%

$9,286 Vol.

<1%

6.1%+

$8,154 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth (YoY) market reflects trader consensus around moderation from Q1’s 5.0% reading toward the official 4.5–5.0% full-year target. Resilient exports (up sharply early in the year), manufacturing momentum in AI-related and green sectors, and stable external demand have provided support, while soft retail sales, subdued consumption, and ongoing property-sector weakness continue to weigh on domestic demand. Recent May indicators showed industrial output holding up but consumer spending remaining cautious, consistent with the “strong supply, weak demand” pattern. Most external forecasts for 2026 cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, aligning with expectations that Q2 will settle in the 4.6–4.9% range absent major new stimulus or external shocks. Resolution will follow official National Bureau of Statistics data later in July.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volumen
$97,955
Enddatum
16. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth (YoY) market reflects trader consensus around moderation from Q1’s 5.0% reading toward the official 4.5–5.0% full-year target. Resilient exports (up sharply early in the year), manufacturing momentum in AI-related and green sectors, and stable external demand have provided support, while soft retail sales, subdued consumption, and ongoing property-sector weakness continue to weigh on domestic demand. Recent May indicators showed industrial output holding up but consumer spending remaining cautious, consistent with the “strong supply, weak demand” pattern. Most external forecasts for 2026 cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, aligning with expectations that Q2 will settle in the 4.6–4.9% range absent major new stimulus or external shocks. Resolution will follow official National Bureau of Statistics data later in July.

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volumen
$97,955
Enddatum
16. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 20, 2026, 5:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 9 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „4.6-4.9%" mit 65%, gefolgt von „4.3-4.6%" mit 33%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 65¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 65% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?" ist „4.6-4.9%" mit 65%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 65% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „4.3-4.6%" mit 33%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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