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Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

icon for Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 25.1%

Siga Batista 6.6%

Fernando Dias da Costa 3.1%

José Mário Vaz 2.8%

Polymarket

$336,982 Vol.

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 25.1%

Siga Batista 6.6%

Fernando Dias da Costa 3.1%

José Mário Vaz 2.8%

Polymarket

$336,982 Vol.

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$90,589 Vol.

15%

Siga Batista

$24,522 Vol.

7%

Fernando Dias da Costa

$57,725 Vol.

16%

José Mário Vaz

$22,281 Vol.

3%

Baciro Djá

$14,532 Vol.

3%

João de Deus Mendes

$17,755 Vol.

3%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,458 Vol.

3%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,784 Vol.

3%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,952 Vol.

2%

João Bernardo Vieira

$16,799 Vol.

2%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,350 Vol.

2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,236 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Guinea-Bissau’s presidential race remains fragmented ahead of the December 6 general election, with no candidate exceeding 16 percent in trader pricing amid a crowded field that includes former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló, Fernando Dias da Costa, and more than a dozen others. The contest follows the November 2025 coup that ousted Embaló after disputed voting, installing a military-led transitional government under Horta Inta-A to oversee the one-year transition. An August 30 constitutional referendum on expanding executive authority adds near-term uncertainty that could reshape candidate strategies and institutional rules before polling. Historical patterns of post-election disputes, military interventions, and coalition fragility sustain the tight spread, while potential separation hinges on candidate withdrawals, alliance formations, or shifts in junta positioning that consolidate support ahead of the vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$336,982
Enddatum
23. Nov. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Guinea-Bissau’s presidential race remains fragmented ahead of the December 6 general election, with no candidate exceeding 16 percent in trader pricing amid a crowded field that includes former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló, Fernando Dias da Costa, and more than a dozen others. The contest follows the November 2025 coup that ousted Embaló after disputed voting, installing a military-led transitional government under Horta Inta-A to oversee the one-year transition. An August 30 constitutional referendum on expanding executive authority adds near-term uncertainty that could reshape candidate strategies and institutional rules before polling. Historical patterns of post-election disputes, military interventions, and coalition fragility sustain the tight spread, while potential separation hinges on candidate withdrawals, alliance formations, or shifts in junta positioning that consolidate support ahead of the vote.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$336,982
Enddatum
23. Nov. 2025
Markt eröffnet
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Platforma Reupblicana „Nô Kumpu Guiné“ bei der Wahl zur Nationalversammlung von Guinea-Bissau 2025 die meisten Sitze gewinnen?

Wird die Platforma Reupblicana „Nô Kumpu Guiné“ bei der Wahl zur Nationalversammlung von Guinea-Bissau 2025 die meisten Sitze gewinnen?

31%
Ja
icon for Wird José Maria Neves die Präsidentschaftswahl in Kap Verde gewinnen?

Wird José Maria Neves die Präsidentschaftswahl in Kap Verde gewinnen?

80%
Ja
icon for Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

85%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 12 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Fernando Dias da Costa" mit 16%, gefolgt von „Umaro Sissoco Embaló" mit 15%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 16¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 16% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $337K generiert, seit der Markt am Nov 6, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 12 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" ist „Fernando Dias da Costa" mit 16%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 16% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Umaro Sissoco Embaló" mit 15%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Präsidentschaftswahl in Guinea-Bissau" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.