Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations produced a June 15, 2026 memorandum of understanding establishing a 60-day ceasefire framework that explicitly schedules further talks on Iran’s nuclear program, enrichment levels, and highly enriched uranium stockpile. The agreement reaffirms Iran’s commitment not to produce or acquire nuclear weapons and includes language on freezing further enrichment or facility expansion pending a comprehensive deal. With the 60-day window extending into mid-August, July 31 falls squarely inside the active negotiation period, allowing traders to price in a realistic but not assured prospect of a specific enrichment cutoff by that date. Primary drivers of the 57.5 % “Yes” price are the official timeline, explicit freeze commitments, and ongoing diplomatic momentum, balanced against the fact that core enrichment terms remain subject to final agreement and could shift with late developments.