US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear weaponization timeline remains unchanged at 9-12 months despite recent US-Israeli airstrikes and conflict, including limited damage to key facilities like Natanz and Isfahan, reinforcing trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports through March highlight Iran's continued 60% uranium enrichment stockpile exceeding 440 kg but no verified weaponization or test preparations amid ongoing monitoring. While unconfirmed April rumors of an accelerated "Kavir Plan" surfaced on social media, they lack substantiation from primary sources, and breakout estimates for fissile material hover at 1-3 months without escalation signals. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and retaliation risks from strikes further deter testing, though regime shifts or covert advances could shift odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Iran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Ja
$192,418 Vol.
$192,418 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$192,418 Vol.
$192,418 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear weaponization timeline remains unchanged at 9-12 months despite recent US-Israeli airstrikes and conflict, including limited damage to key facilities like Natanz and Isfahan, reinforcing trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports through March highlight Iran's continued 60% uranium enrichment stockpile exceeding 440 kg but no verified weaponization or test preparations amid ongoing monitoring. While unconfirmed April rumors of an accelerated "Kavir Plan" surfaced on social media, they lack substantiation from primary sources, and breakout estimates for fissile material hover at 1-3 months without escalation signals. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and retaliation risks from strikes further deter testing, though regime shifts or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$192,418Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear weaponization timeline remains unchanged at 9-12 months despite recent US-Israeli airstrikes and conflict, including limited damage to key facilities like Natanz and Isfahan, reinforcing trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports through March highlight Iran's continued 60% uranium enrichment stockpile exceeding 440 kg but no verified weaponization or test preparations amid ongoing monitoring. While unconfirmed April rumors of an accelerated "Kavir Plan" surfaced on social media, they lack substantiation from primary sources, and breakout estimates for fissile material hover at 1-3 months without escalation signals. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and retaliation risks from strikes further deter testing, though regime shifts or covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$192,418Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear weaponization timeline remains unchanged at 9-12 months despite recent US-Israeli airstrikes and conflict, including limited damage to key facilities like Natanz and Isfahan, reinforcing trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports through March highlight Iran's continued 60% uranium enrichment stockpile exceeding 440 kg but no verified weaponization or test preparations amid ongoing monitoring. While unconfirmed April rumors of an accelerated "Kavir Plan" surfaced on social media, they lack substantiation from primary sources, and breakout estimates for fissile material hover at 1-3 months without escalation signals. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and retaliation risks from strikes further deter testing, though regime shifts or covert advances could shift odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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