Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while a June 2026 bilateral memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. IAEA inspectors remain withdrawn with no verified resumption of enrichment activities, leaving substantial 60% enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible amid rubble and limiting near-term breakout capacity. These setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic channels and technical hurdles to weaponization and testing, underpin trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027. Scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected rebuilding at fortified sites like Pickaxe Mountain or rapid escalation if agreements collapse before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Iran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Ja
5% Chance
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
5% Chance
$246,407 Vol.
$246,407 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while a June 2026 bilateral memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. IAEA inspectors remain withdrawn with no verified resumption of enrichment activities, leaving substantial 60% enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible amid rubble and limiting near-term breakout capacity. These setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic channels and technical hurdles to weaponization and testing, underpin trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027. Scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected rebuilding at fortified sites like Pickaxe Mountain or rapid escalation if agreements collapse before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$246,407Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while a June 2026 bilateral memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. IAEA inspectors remain withdrawn with no verified resumption of enrichment activities, leaving substantial 60% enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible amid rubble and limiting near-term breakout capacity. These setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic channels and technical hurdles to weaponization and testing, underpin trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027. Scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected rebuilding at fortified sites like Pickaxe Mountain or rapid escalation if agreements collapse before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$246,407Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while a June 2026 bilateral memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. IAEA inspectors remain withdrawn with no verified resumption of enrichment activities, leaving substantial 60% enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible amid rubble and limiting near-term breakout capacity. These setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic channels and technical hurdles to weaponization and testing, underpin trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027. Scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected rebuilding at fortified sites like Pickaxe Mountain or rapid escalation if agreements collapse before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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