Recent developments, including a U.S.-mediated three-day ceasefire in May 2026 and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements that the conflict may be approaching an end, have sustained diplomatic contacts but failed to resolve core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality. Ongoing Geneva talks remain stalled on these issues, with Russia continuing infrastructure projects in occupied regions and showing no urgency to finalize terms before the June 30 deadline. Traders assign a 94.5% probability to “No” because such barriers have historically prevented swift comprehensive agreements in this conflict, though a sudden breakthrough in bilateral negotiations or major concessions could still shift the outcome before the cutoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$439,575 Vol.
$439,575 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$439,575 Vol.
$439,575 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent developments, including a U.S.-mediated three-day ceasefire in May 2026 and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements that the conflict may be approaching an end, have sustained diplomatic contacts but failed to resolve core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality. Ongoing Geneva talks remain stalled on these issues, with Russia continuing infrastructure projects in occupied regions and showing no urgency to finalize terms before the June 30 deadline. Traders assign a 94.5% probability to “No” because such barriers have historically prevented swift comprehensive agreements in this conflict, though a sudden breakthrough in bilateral negotiations or major concessions could still shift the outcome before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volumen
$439,575Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent developments, including a U.S.-mediated three-day ceasefire in May 2026 and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements that the conflict may be approaching an end, have sustained diplomatic contacts but failed to resolve core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality. Ongoing Geneva talks remain stalled on these issues, with Russia continuing infrastructure projects in occupied regions and showing no urgency to finalize terms before the June 30 deadline. Traders assign a 94.5% probability to “No” because such barriers have historically prevented swift comprehensive agreements in this conflict, though a sudden breakthrough in bilateral negotiations or major concessions could still shift the outcome before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$439,575Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments, including a U.S.-mediated three-day ceasefire in May 2026 and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements that the conflict may be approaching an end, have sustained diplomatic contacts but failed to resolve core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality. Ongoing Geneva talks remain stalled on these issues, with Russia continuing infrastructure projects in occupied regions and showing no urgency to finalize terms before the June 30 deadline. Traders assign a 94.5% probability to “No” because such barriers have historically prevented swift comprehensive agreements in this conflict, though a sudden breakthrough in bilateral negotiations or major concessions could still shift the outcome before the cutoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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