The intensifying El Niño event in the equatorial Pacific, now forecast by NOAA and ECMWF models to reach strong or super-El Niño levels by late 2026, is the main driver pushing trader consensus toward an 87.5% implied probability that at least one month will set a new global temperature record. Background anthropogenic warming has already placed recent years like 2024 and 2025 among the warmest on record, and the added heat from this developing ENSO phase—projected to elevate global mean surface temperatures by 0.1–0.2°C above recent baselines—creates multiple windows, especially from September onward, where monthly anomalies could surpass prior peaks. Early 2026 data show continued elevated temperatures consistent with this trajectory, with model ensembles indicating low likelihood of a rapid reversal before peak El Niño effects materialize.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWird ein Monat im Jahr 2026 der heißeste seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen sein?
Wird ein Monat im Jahr 2026 der heißeste seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen sein?
Ja
$136,727 Vol.
$136,727 Vol.
10. Jan. 2027
Ja
$136,727 Vol.
$136,727 Vol.
10. Jan. 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The intensifying El Niño event in the equatorial Pacific, now forecast by NOAA and ECMWF models to reach strong or super-El Niño levels by late 2026, is the main driver pushing trader consensus toward an 87.5% implied probability that at least one month will set a new global temperature record. Background anthropogenic warming has already placed recent years like 2024 and 2025 among the warmest on record, and the added heat from this developing ENSO phase—projected to elevate global mean surface temperatures by 0.1–0.2°C above recent baselines—creates multiple windows, especially from September onward, where monthly anomalies could surpass prior peaks. Early 2026 data show continued elevated temperatures consistent with this trajectory, with model ensembles indicating low likelihood of a rapid reversal before peak El Niño effects materialize.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volumen
$136,727Enddatum
10. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The intensifying El Niño event in the equatorial Pacific, now forecast by NOAA and ECMWF models to reach strong or super-El Niño levels by late 2026, is the main driver pushing trader consensus toward an 87.5% implied probability that at least one month will set a new global temperature record. Background anthropogenic warming has already placed recent years like 2024 and 2025 among the warmest on record, and the added heat from this developing ENSO phase—projected to elevate global mean surface temperatures by 0.1–0.2°C above recent baselines—creates multiple windows, especially from September onward, where monthly anomalies could surpass prior peaks. Early 2026 data show continued elevated temperatures consistent with this trajectory, with model ensembles indicating low likelihood of a rapid reversal before peak El Niño effects materialize.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$136,727Enddatum
10. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The intensifying El Niño event in the equatorial Pacific, now forecast by NOAA and ECMWF models to reach strong or super-El Niño levels by late 2026, is the main driver pushing trader consensus toward an 87.5% implied probability that at least one month will set a new global temperature record. Background anthropogenic warming has already placed recent years like 2024 and 2025 among the warmest on record, and the added heat from this developing ENSO phase—projected to elevate global mean surface temperatures by 0.1–0.2°C above recent baselines—creates multiple windows, especially from September onward, where monthly anomalies could surpass prior peaks. Early 2026 data show continued elevated temperatures consistent with this trajectory, with model ensembles indicating low likelihood of a rapid reversal before peak El Niño effects materialize.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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