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Economy·Canada

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

icon for Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?
Economy·Canada

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

4% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
4% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.Recent labor market data showing resilience has anchored trader sentiment, with Canada's unemployment rate declining to 6.6% in May 2026 from 6.9% in April and remaining below the 7.1% peaks recorded in 2025—the highest levels since 2016 outside the pandemic. Net employment rose sharply by 87,800, outpacing labor force growth and reflecting gains concentrated among core working-age groups amid stable participation at 65%. This improvement follows a period of gradual softening driven by slower hiring rather than widespread layoffs, supported by Bank of Canada policy easing and economic adaptation to U.S. tariff pressures. Market-implied odds heavily favor no new annual high in 2026, consistent with consensus forecasts around 6.8–7.0% and the post-2025 downward trajectory. A sharper-than-expected contraction in GDP or renewed external shocks could still push rates higher, though current momentum makes such reversals appear limited.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.

Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Volumen
$8,538
Enddatum
15. Feb. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.Recent labor market data showing resilience has anchored trader sentiment, with Canada's unemployment rate declining to 6.6% in May 2026 from 6.9% in April and remaining below the 7.1% peaks recorded in 2025—the highest levels since 2016 outside the pandemic. Net employment rose sharply by 87,800, outpacing labor force growth and reflecting gains concentrated among core working-age groups amid stable participation at 65%. This improvement follows a period of gradual softening driven by slower hiring rather than widespread layoffs, supported by Bank of Canada policy easing and economic adaptation to U.S. tariff pressures. Market-implied odds heavily favor no new annual high in 2026, consistent with consensus forecasts around 6.8–7.0% and the post-2025 downward trajectory. A sharper-than-expected contraction in GDP or renewed external shocks could still push rates higher, though current momentum makes such reversals appear limited.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.

Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Volumen
$8,538
Enddatum
15. Feb. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 4% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 4¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 4%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Jan 29, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?" zu handeln, wählen Sie einfach, ob Sie glauben, dass die Antwort „Ja" oder „Nein" lautet. Jede Seite hat einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes widerspiegelt. Geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile kaufen und das Ergebnis als „Ja" aufgelöst wird, zahlt jeder Anteil $1 aus. Wird es als „Nein" aufgelöst, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen, um einen Gewinn zu sichern oder einen Verlust zu begrenzen.

Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?" liegt bei 4% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 4% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.