No EU member state has initiated Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled referendums that could lead to exit before 2027, reflecting the absence of viable political movements or economic incentives for departure. Trader consensus at 96.7% for no withdrawal stems from the multi-year negotiation timeline required under EU treaties, as demonstrated by the extended Brexit process, combined with ongoing enlargement talks for candidates like Montenegro and Albania. Recent European Council discussions have centered on the 2028-2034 budget and security cooperation rather than exits. Late developments such as a sudden domestic crisis prompting rapid invocation of withdrawal procedures in one state remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before the end of 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?
¿Algún país se retira de la UE antes de 2027?
Sí
3% probabilidad
$160,003 Vol.
$160,003 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$160,003 Vol.
$160,003 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state has initiated Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled referendums that could lead to exit before 2027, reflecting the absence of viable political movements or economic incentives for departure. Trader consensus at 96.7% for no withdrawal stems from the multi-year negotiation timeline required under EU treaties, as demonstrated by the extended Brexit process, combined with ongoing enlargement talks for candidates like Montenegro and Albania. Recent European Council discussions have centered on the 2028-2034 budget and security cooperation rather than exits. Late developments such as a sudden domestic crisis prompting rapid invocation of withdrawal procedures in one state remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Volumen
$160,003Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state has initiated Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled referendums that could lead to exit before 2027, reflecting the absence of viable political movements or economic incentives for departure. Trader consensus at 96.7% for no withdrawal stems from the multi-year negotiation timeline required under EU treaties, as demonstrated by the extended Brexit process, combined with ongoing enlargement talks for candidates like Montenegro and Albania. Recent European Council discussions have centered on the 2028-2034 budget and security cooperation rather than exits. Late developments such as a sudden domestic crisis prompting rapid invocation of withdrawal procedures in one state remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$160,003Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No EU member state has initiated Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled referendums that could lead to exit before 2027, reflecting the absence of viable political movements or economic incentives for departure. Trader consensus at 96.7% for no withdrawal stems from the multi-year negotiation timeline required under EU treaties, as demonstrated by the extended Brexit process, combined with ongoing enlargement talks for candidates like Montenegro and Albania. Recent European Council discussions have centered on the 2028-2034 budget and security cooperation rather than exits. Late developments such as a sudden domestic crisis prompting rapid invocation of withdrawal procedures in one state remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before the end of 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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