Skip to main content
icon for Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Geopolítica·Irán

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

icon for Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Geopolítica·Irán

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

may 31

may 31

0-10 87%

10-20 6%

20-40 3.4%

60+ 3.1%

Polymarket

$320,538 Vol.

0-10 87%

10-20 6%

20-40 3.4%

60+ 3.1%

Polymarket

$320,538 Vol.

0-10

$170,840 Vol.

87%

10-20

$42,858 Vol.

6%

20-40

$34,061 Vol.

3%

40-60

$27,481 Vol.

2%

60+

$45,298 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran and subsequent Iranian restrictions have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at historic lows since late February 2026. Shipping data through mid-May show daily averages often in the single digits, with weekly totals frequently below 20 vessels amid naval skirmishes, Iranian demands for prior permits and potential fees, and widespread AIS deactivation by operators. These verified disruptions, including recent interceptions and a fragile ceasefire that has not restored normal flows, underpin the trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the final weeks of May could still shift daily volumes, though the pattern of suppressed activity has held steady into the resolution window.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$320,538
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran and subsequent Iranian restrictions have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at historic lows since late February 2026. Shipping data through mid-May show daily averages often in the single digits, with weekly totals frequently below 20 vessels amid naval skirmishes, Iranian demands for prior permits and potential fees, and widespread AIS deactivation by operators. These verified disruptions, including recent interceptions and a fragile ceasefire that has not restored normal flows, underpin the trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the final weeks of May could still shift daily volumes, though the pattern of suppressed activity has held steady into the resolution window.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.

This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$320,538
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 5 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "0-10" con 87%, seguido de "10-20" con 6%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 87¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 87% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?" ha generado $320.5K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 30, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?", explora los 5 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?" es "0-10" con 87%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 87% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "10-20" con 6%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.