Recent polling shows Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan narrowly ahead on first preferences in the May 22 Dublin Central by-election, yet traders assign Daniel Ennis a commanding lead because his Social Democrats platform is expected to capture substantial transfers from eliminated centre-left and Green candidates under Ireland’s PR-STV system. Gerry Hutch’s independent candidacy remains a factor but is capped by limited preference flow, while Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam and smaller contenders trail further back. The vacancy created by Paschal Donohoe’s resignation has produced a crowded ballot, amplifying the importance of late-count transfers and turnout among urban working-class voters. No major new developments have altered these dynamics in the past week.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones parciales de Dublín-Centro
Ganador de las elecciones parciales de Dublín-Centro
Daniel Ennis 68%
Janice Boylan 19.1%
Gerry Hutch 11.6%
Ray McAdam 1.7%
$1,087,222 Vol.
$1,087,222 Vol.
Daniel Ennis
68%
Janice Boylan
19%
Gerry Hutch
12%
Ray McAdam
2%
Janet Horner
1%
Gillian Sherratt
1%
Malachy Steenson
1%
Ian Noel Smyth
<1%
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
<1%
Séamas McGrattan
<1%
Mary Fitzpatrick
<1%
John Stephens
<1%
Daniel Ennis 68%
Janice Boylan 19.1%
Gerry Hutch 11.6%
Ray McAdam 1.7%
$1,087,222 Vol.
$1,087,222 Vol.
Daniel Ennis
68%
Janice Boylan
19%
Gerry Hutch
12%
Ray McAdam
2%
Janet Horner
1%
Gillian Sherratt
1%
Malachy Steenson
1%
Ian Noel Smyth
<1%
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
<1%
Séamas McGrattan
<1%
Mary Fitzpatrick
<1%
John Stephens
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan narrowly ahead on first preferences in the May 22 Dublin Central by-election, yet traders assign Daniel Ennis a commanding lead because his Social Democrats platform is expected to capture substantial transfers from eliminated centre-left and Green candidates under Ireland’s PR-STV system. Gerry Hutch’s independent candidacy remains a factor but is capped by limited preference flow, while Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam and smaller contenders trail further back. The vacancy created by Paschal Donohoe’s resignation has produced a crowded ballot, amplifying the importance of late-count transfers and turnout among urban working-class voters. No major new developments have altered these dynamics in the past week.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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