Recent polling from July 2026 shows ex-governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) leading Senate intentions in Espírito Santo with 24-35%, leaving a fragmented contest for second among Rose de Freitas (MDB), Fabiano Contarato (PT), Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), and others. High undecided shares near 70% in spontaneous responses, combined with 11 registered candidates and shifting alliances ahead of the October 4 vote, sustain tight implied probabilities around 40-50% for the leading second-place options. Late-campaign factors such as party ticket consolidations, targeted regional outreach in key municipalities, turnout differentials, and any high-profile endorsements or debates could consolidate support behind one contender and separate the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRose de Freitas 46%
Sergio Meneguelli 45%
Rodney Miranda 45%
Renato Casagrande 44%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
Rose de Freitas
46%
Sergio Meneguelli
45%
Rodney Miranda
45%
Renato Casagrande
44%
Callegari
44%
Leonardo Monjardim
43%
Marcos do Val
42%
Maguinha Malta
39%
Profesor Fabian
39%
Fabiano Contarato
30%
Evair de Melo
25%
Rose de Freitas 46%
Sergio Meneguelli 45%
Rodney Miranda 45%
Renato Casagrande 44%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
Rose de Freitas
$0 Vol.
46%
Sergio Meneguelli
$0 Vol.
45%
Rodney Miranda
$0 Vol.
45%
Renato Casagrande
$0 Vol.
44%
Callegari
$0 Vol.
44%
Leonardo Monjardim
$0 Vol.
43%
Marcos do Val
$0 Vol.
42%
Maguinha Malta
$0 Vol.
39%
Profesor Fabian
$0 Vol.
39%
Fabiano Contarato
$0 Vol.
30%
Evair de Melo
$0 Vol.
25%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July 2026 shows ex-governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) leading Senate intentions in Espírito Santo with 24-35%, leaving a fragmented contest for second among Rose de Freitas (MDB), Fabiano Contarato (PT), Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), and others. High undecided shares near 70% in spontaneous responses, combined with 11 registered candidates and shifting alliances ahead of the October 4 vote, sustain tight implied probabilities around 40-50% for the leading second-place options. Late-campaign factors such as party ticket consolidations, targeted regional outreach in key municipalities, turnout differentials, and any high-profile endorsements or debates could consolidate support behind one contender and separate the market.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July 2026 shows ex-governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) leading Senate intentions in Espírito Santo with 24-35%, leaving a fragmented contest for second among Rose de Freitas (MDB), Fabiano Contarato (PT), Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), and others. High undecided shares near 70% in spontaneous responses, combined with 11 registered candidates and shifting alliances ahead of the October 4 vote, sustain tight implied probabilities around 40-50% for the leading second-place options. Late-campaign factors such as party ticket consolidations, targeted regional outreach in key municipalities, turnout differentials, and any high-profile endorsements or debates could consolidate support behind one contender and separate the market.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from July 2026 shows ex-governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) leading Senate intentions in Espírito Santo with 24-35%, leaving a fragmented contest for second among Rose de Freitas (MDB), Fabiano Contarato (PT), Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), and others. High undecided shares near 70% in spontaneous responses, combined with 11 registered candidates and shifting alliances ahead of the October 4 vote, sustain tight implied probabilities around 40-50% for the leading second-place options. Late-campaign factors such as party ticket consolidations, targeted regional outreach in key municipalities, turnout differentials, and any high-profile endorsements or debates could consolidate support behind one contender and separate the market.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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