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Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau

icon for Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau

Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 25.1%

Siga Batista 6.6%

Fernando Dias da Costa 3.1%

Baciro Djá 2.8%

Polymarket

$336,982 Vol.

Umaro Sissoco Embaló 25.1%

Siga Batista 6.6%

Fernando Dias da Costa 3.1%

Baciro Djá 2.8%

Polymarket

$336,982 Vol.

Umaro Sissoco Embaló

$90,589 Vol.

15%

Siga Batista

$24,522 Vol.

7%

Fernando Dias da Costa

$57,725 Vol.

16%

Baciro Djá

$14,532 Vol.

3%

José Mário Vaz

$22,281 Vol.

3%

João de Deus Mendes

$17,755 Vol.

3%

Honório Augusto Lopes

$18,784 Vol.

3%

Mamadu Iaia Djaló

$19,952 Vol.

2%

Gabriel Fernando Indi

$19,458 Vol.

2%

Título del ítem del grupo: João Bernardo Vieira

$16,799 Vol.

2%

Mário da Silva Júnior

$18,350 Vol.

2%

Título del ítem del grupo: Herculano Armando Bequinsa

$16,236 Vol.

1%

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The fragmented candidate field and lingering uncertainties from the November 2025 coup continue to keep the December 2026 presidential race tightly contested among traders. Fernando Dias da Costa and former incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló lead narrowly, reflecting their positions as the primary opposition and establishment figures ahead of the vote. Multiple lower-polling contenders further split support, while the transitional military authorities' moves on candidate eligibility, inclusive government offers, and ECOWAS engagement introduce variables that could shift alignments. Historical patterns of instability and delayed results amplify caution, with any confirmation of participation rules or coalition signals likely to widen gaps in implied probabilities before election day.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$336,982
Fecha de finalización
23 nov 2025
Mercado abierto
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).The fragmented candidate field and lingering uncertainties from the November 2025 coup continue to keep the December 2026 presidential race tightly contested among traders. Fernando Dias da Costa and former incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló lead narrowly, reflecting their positions as the primary opposition and establishment figures ahead of the vote. Multiple lower-polling contenders further split support, while the transitional military authorities' moves on candidate eligibility, inclusive government offers, and ECOWAS engagement introduce variables that could shift alignments. Historical patterns of instability and delayed results amplify caution, with any confirmation of participation rules or coalition signals likely to widen gaps in implied probabilities before election day.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volumen
$336,982
Fecha de finalización
23 nov 2025
Mercado abierto
Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 12 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Fernando Dias da Costa" con 16%, seguido de "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" con 15%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 16¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 16% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau" ha generado $337K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 6, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau", explora los 12 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau" es "Fernando Dias da Costa" con 16%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 16% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Umaro Sissoco Embaló" con 15%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bissau" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.