Guinea-Bissau’s upcoming December 2026 legislative elections occur amid a military-led transition following the November 2025 coup that annulled prior results and installed an interim government. A September 2026 constitutional referendum, approved by roughly 70 percent of participants despite an opposition boycott, reduced the National People’s Assembly to 65 seats, consolidated constituencies, and altered candidate requirements, reshaping the proportional representation contest. In this fragmented field, smaller parties and platforms such as FREPASNA and the Republican Platform “Nô Kumpu Guiné” hold the highest implied probabilities because major historical actors remain sidelined and no single grouping commands broad national support. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over coalition formation, turnout under the revised rules, and whether the transitional authorities will maintain an open process through the vote.