Trader consensus in this market heavily favors a daily high of 37°C or higher because climatological records from the Saudi Meteorological Authority show May temperatures in Jeddah routinely reach 38–42°C under prevailing Red Sea heat and low-level southerly flow. Current model guidance from global ensembles indicates stable high-pressure ridging and minimal cloud cover through the afternoon, supporting peak readings well above the 37°C threshold. Historical analogs confirm that only rare marine intrusions or unexpected upper-level cooling have kept May maxima below this level in the past two decades. While official observations could still shift slightly with late-day sea-breeze effects, the probability of sub-37°C outcomes remains negligible absent a major, unforeseen synoptic change.