Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 86-87°F at 40% implied probability for Miami's highest temperature on May 17, driven by National Weather Service guidance and short-range forecast models like GFS projecting peaks near 87°F under a persistent subtropical ridge. Recent observations at Miami International Airport hit 91°F on May 15 amid above-normal heat, but models anticipate sea breeze onset moderating afternoon highs, with a 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms potentially capping temperatures below 88°F. The narrow edge over 88-89°F (31%) and 84-85°F (18%) stems from uncertainty in convective timing and ridge strength; delayed sea breezes or sunnier conditions could push into the upper range, while increased cloudiness favors lower bins. New evening model runs and tomorrow's NWS updates will refine this outlook as resolution nears.