PAGASA’s official forecast, projecting a 35°C daily maximum for Manila on May 16 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the South China Sea, anchors the near-certain 99.9% market-implied odds for that outcome. This aligns with May climatology, when typical afternoon peaks reach 33–34°C amid high humidity and limited cloud cover, though recent model runs show minimal afternoon convection that could cap temperatures precisely at the 35°C threshold. Real-time PAGASA station data will resolve the market at day’s end, and traders assign only negligible probability to deviations because historical analogs and ensemble guidance indicate low risk of either rapid cooling from unexpected showers or intensification beyond the forecast.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Manila on May 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 16?
35°C 99.8%
36°C <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$42,530 Vol.
$42,530 Vol.
16 may 2026
35°C
100%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 99.8%
36°C <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$42,530 Vol.
$42,530 Vol.
16 may 2026
35°C
$3,332 Vol.
100%
36°C
$3,924 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$3,992 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$1,982 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$742 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA’s official forecast, projecting a 35°C daily maximum for Manila on May 16 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the South China Sea, anchors the near-certain 99.9% market-implied odds for that outcome. This aligns with May climatology, when typical afternoon peaks reach 33–34°C amid high humidity and limited cloud cover, though recent model runs show minimal afternoon convection that could cap temperatures precisely at the 35°C threshold. Real-time PAGASA station data will resolve the market at day’s end, and traders assign only negligible probability to deviations because historical analogs and ensemble guidance indicate low risk of either rapid cooling from unexpected showers or intensification beyond the forecast.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volumen
$42,530Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.PAGASA’s official forecast, projecting a 35°C daily maximum for Manila on May 16 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the South China Sea, anchors the near-certain 99.9% market-implied odds for that outcome. This aligns with May climatology, when typical afternoon peaks reach 33–34°C amid high humidity and limited cloud cover, though recent model runs show minimal afternoon convection that could cap temperatures precisely at the 35°C threshold. Real-time PAGASA station data will resolve the market at day’s end, and traders assign only negligible probability to deviations because historical analogs and ensemble guidance indicate low risk of either rapid cooling from unexpected showers or intensification beyond the forecast.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$42,530Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA’s official forecast, projecting a 35°C daily maximum for Manila on May 16 under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the South China Sea, anchors the near-certain 99.9% market-implied odds for that outcome. This aligns with May climatology, when typical afternoon peaks reach 33–34°C amid high humidity and limited cloud cover, though recent model runs show minimal afternoon convection that could cap temperatures precisely at the 35°C threshold. Real-time PAGASA station data will resolve the market at day’s end, and traders assign only negligible probability to deviations because historical analogs and ensemble guidance indicate low risk of either rapid cooling from unexpected showers or intensification beyond the forecast.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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