Recent numerical weather prediction models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles like ECMWF indicate a strong warm-air advection over the Kanto Plain, positioning Tokyo for a maximum temperature of 28°C or higher on May 18 with substantial trader consensus at 76% implied probability. This setup contrasts with typical mid-May climatology of 22–23°C highs, driven by an amplified subtropical ridge and reduced cloud cover that favors greater solar heating. Short-range forecasts show minimal model spread, though minor shifts in steering winds could trim the peak by 1–2°C before resolution. Traders monitoring the next JMA update and surface observations will watch for confirmation of these conditions as the observation window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 18 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 18 de mayo?
28°C or higher 77%
27°C 20%
26°C 5.1%
25°C <1%
NUEVO
$39,096 Vol.
NUEVO
$39,096 Vol.
18 may 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
5%
27°C
20%
28°C or higher
77%
28°C or higher 77%
27°C 20%
26°C 5.1%
25°C <1%
NUEVO
$39,096 Vol.
NUEVO
$39,096 Vol.
18 may 2026
18°C or below
$3,106 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,432 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,081 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,264 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,918 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,398 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$15,812 Vol.
1%
25°C
$3,346 Vol.
1%
26°C
$3,268 Vol.
5%
27°C
$2,262 Vol.
20%
28°C or higher
$3,557 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles like ECMWF indicate a strong warm-air advection over the Kanto Plain, positioning Tokyo for a maximum temperature of 28°C or higher on May 18 with substantial trader consensus at 76% implied probability. This setup contrasts with typical mid-May climatology of 22–23°C highs, driven by an amplified subtropical ridge and reduced cloud cover that favors greater solar heating. Short-range forecasts show minimal model spread, though minor shifts in steering winds could trim the peak by 1–2°C before resolution. Traders monitoring the next JMA update and surface observations will watch for confirmation of these conditions as the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volumen
$39,096Fecha de finalización
18 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles like ECMWF indicate a strong warm-air advection over the Kanto Plain, positioning Tokyo for a maximum temperature of 28°C or higher on May 18 with substantial trader consensus at 76% implied probability. This setup contrasts with typical mid-May climatology of 22–23°C highs, driven by an amplified subtropical ridge and reduced cloud cover that favors greater solar heating. Short-range forecasts show minimal model spread, though minor shifts in steering winds could trim the peak by 1–2°C before resolution. Traders monitoring the next JMA update and surface observations will watch for confirmation of these conditions as the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$39,096Fecha de finalización
18 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent numerical weather prediction models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles like ECMWF indicate a strong warm-air advection over the Kanto Plain, positioning Tokyo for a maximum temperature of 28°C or higher on May 18 with substantial trader consensus at 76% implied probability. This setup contrasts with typical mid-May climatology of 22–23°C highs, driven by an amplified subtropical ridge and reduced cloud cover that favors greater solar heating. Short-range forecasts show minimal model spread, though minor shifts in steering winds could trim the peak by 1–2°C before resolution. Traders monitoring the next JMA update and surface observations will watch for confirmation of these conditions as the observation window closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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