Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) have converged on a daytime maximum near 13 °C for Warsaw on May 17, producing the market’s near-certain 99.9 % pricing for that outcome. Mid-May climatology places the long-term average high around 17–19 °C, so the cooler pattern reflects a persistent northerly or northwesterly flow advecting maritime air across central Poland. Official observations will be taken at Warsaw Chopin Airport; any final reading between 12.5 °C and 13.4 °C would resolve the contract. A modest southward shift in the jet stream or delayed frontal passage could allow the high to reach 14 °C, though current model agreement leaves little room for such deviation before sunset.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Varsovia el 17 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Varsovia el 17 de mayo?
13°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$51,037 Vol.
$51,037 Vol.
17 may 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
13°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$51,037 Vol.
$51,037 Vol.
17 may 2026
5°C or below
$660 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$979 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$435 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$684 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,131 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$4,456 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$10,632 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$4,864 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$10,522 Vol.
100%
14°C
$8,332 Vol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$8,342 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) have converged on a daytime maximum near 13 °C for Warsaw on May 17, producing the market’s near-certain 99.9 % pricing for that outcome. Mid-May climatology places the long-term average high around 17–19 °C, so the cooler pattern reflects a persistent northerly or northwesterly flow advecting maritime air across central Poland. Official observations will be taken at Warsaw Chopin Airport; any final reading between 12.5 °C and 13.4 °C would resolve the contract. A modest southward shift in the jet stream or delayed frontal passage could allow the high to reach 14 °C, though current model agreement leaves little room for such deviation before sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volumen
$51,037Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) have converged on a daytime maximum near 13 °C for Warsaw on May 17, producing the market’s near-certain 99.9 % pricing for that outcome. Mid-May climatology places the long-term average high around 17–19 °C, so the cooler pattern reflects a persistent northerly or northwesterly flow advecting maritime air across central Poland. Official observations will be taken at Warsaw Chopin Airport; any final reading between 12.5 °C and 13.4 °C would resolve the contract. A modest southward shift in the jet stream or delayed frontal passage could allow the high to reach 14 °C, though current model agreement leaves little room for such deviation before sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$51,037Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWARecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) have converged on a daytime maximum near 13 °C for Warsaw on May 17, producing the market’s near-certain 99.9 % pricing for that outcome. Mid-May climatology places the long-term average high around 17–19 °C, so the cooler pattern reflects a persistent northerly or northwesterly flow advecting maritime air across central Poland. Official observations will be taken at Warsaw Chopin Airport; any final reading between 12.5 °C and 13.4 °C would resolve the contract. A modest southward shift in the jet stream or delayed frontal passage could allow the high to reach 14 °C, though current model agreement leaves little room for such deviation before sunset.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes