Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime high near 19°C for Warsaw on May 18, supporting the market’s 63.5% implied probability for 19°C or above. Springtime solar insolation combined with light southerly flow is expected to produce modest warming from overnight lows near 9°C, while scattered cloud cover and a weak frontal passage limit further intensification. Model consensus places the most likely maximum in the 18–20°C range, consistent with climatological May averages of 19–20°C, though minor shifts in cloud timing or wind direction could still cap the peak at 18°C. Updated runs and official IMGW guidance are scheduled for release within the next 24 hours.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Varsovia el 18 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Varsovia el 18 de mayo?
19°C or higher 68%
18°C 20%
17°C 10%
16°C 2.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 may 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
3%
17°C
10%
18°C
20%
19°C or higher
68%
19°C or higher 68%
18°C 20%
17°C 10%
16°C 2.8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 may 2026
9°C or below
$210 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$230 Vol.
1%
11°C
$210 Vol.
1%
12°C
$210 Vol.
1%
13°C
$70 Vol.
1%
14°C
$25 Vol.
1%
15°C
$75 Vol.
2%
16°C
$32 Vol.
3%
17°C
$1 Vol.
10%
18°C
$1 Vol.
20%
19°C or higher
$97 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime high near 19°C for Warsaw on May 18, supporting the market’s 63.5% implied probability for 19°C or above. Springtime solar insolation combined with light southerly flow is expected to produce modest warming from overnight lows near 9°C, while scattered cloud cover and a weak frontal passage limit further intensification. Model consensus places the most likely maximum in the 18–20°C range, consistent with climatological May averages of 19–20°C, though minor shifts in cloud timing or wind direction could still cap the peak at 18°C. Updated runs and official IMGW guidance are scheduled for release within the next 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volumen
$1,161Fecha de finalización
18 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime high near 19°C for Warsaw on May 18, supporting the market’s 63.5% implied probability for 19°C or above. Springtime solar insolation combined with light southerly flow is expected to produce modest warming from overnight lows near 9°C, while scattered cloud cover and a weak frontal passage limit further intensification. Model consensus places the most likely maximum in the 18–20°C range, consistent with climatological May averages of 19–20°C, though minor shifts in cloud timing or wind direction could still cap the peak at 18°C. Updated runs and official IMGW guidance are scheduled for release within the next 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,161Fecha de finalización
18 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWALatest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System converge on a daytime high near 19°C for Warsaw on May 18, supporting the market’s 63.5% implied probability for 19°C or above. Springtime solar insolation combined with light southerly flow is expected to produce modest warming from overnight lows near 9°C, while scattered cloud cover and a weak frontal passage limit further intensification. Model consensus places the most likely maximum in the 18–20°C range, consistent with climatological May averages of 19–20°C, though minor shifts in cloud timing or wind direction could still cap the peak at 18°C. Updated runs and official IMGW guidance are scheduled for release within the next 24 hours.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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