Mid-August atmospheric patterns, including a northward-shifted jet stream and more stable air masses, typically suppress U.S. tornado activity compared to spring peaks, aligning with the historical average of roughly 80 confirmed tornadoes per August. As of August 12, 2026, early-month counts appear modest amid low daily tornado probabilities from Storm Prediction Center outlooks, supporting trader emphasis on the 60–99 range while elevating <40 odds due to uncertainty over the remaining period. Differentiating factors include potential late-August tropical cyclone influences that could boost counts toward 100+ versus continued suppression yielding below-average totals, with model consensus and any new severe weather outbreaks serving as key near-term drivers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos tornados hubo en Estados Unidos en agosto de 2026?
¿Cuántos tornados hubo en Estados Unidos en agosto de 2026?
<40 23%
170–199 20.9%
60-79 17%
40–59 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 sep 2026
<40
23%
40–59
14%
60-79
22%
80-99
24%
100–119
20%
120–139
13%
140-169
12%
170–199
21%
200+
14%
<40 23%
170–199 20.9%
60-79 17%
40–59 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 sep 2026
<40
$103 Vol.
23%
40–59
$85 Vol.
14%
60-79
$60 Vol.
22%
80-99
$52 Vol.
24%
100–119
$52 Vol.
20%
120–139
$52 Vol.
13%
140-169
$96 Vol.
12%
170–199
$125 Vol.
21%
200+
$205 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Mid-August atmospheric patterns, including a northward-shifted jet stream and more stable air masses, typically suppress U.S. tornado activity compared to spring peaks, aligning with the historical average of roughly 80 confirmed tornadoes per August. As of August 12, 2026, early-month counts appear modest amid low daily tornado probabilities from Storm Prediction Center outlooks, supporting trader emphasis on the 60–99 range while elevating <40 odds due to uncertainty over the remaining period. Differentiating factors include potential late-August tropical cyclone influences that could boost counts toward 100+ versus continued suppression yielding below-average totals, with model consensus and any new severe weather outbreaks serving as key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volumen
$831Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Mid-August atmospheric patterns, including a northward-shifted jet stream and more stable air masses, typically suppress U.S. tornado activity compared to spring peaks, aligning with the historical average of roughly 80 confirmed tornadoes per August. As of August 12, 2026, early-month counts appear modest amid low daily tornado probabilities from Storm Prediction Center outlooks, supporting trader emphasis on the 60–99 range while elevating <40 odds due to uncertainty over the remaining period. Differentiating factors include potential late-August tropical cyclone influences that could boost counts toward 100+ versus continued suppression yielding below-average totals, with model consensus and any new severe weather outbreaks serving as key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$831Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mid-August atmospheric patterns, including a northward-shifted jet stream and more stable air masses, typically suppress U.S. tornado activity compared to spring peaks, aligning with the historical average of roughly 80 confirmed tornadoes per August. As of August 12, 2026, early-month counts appear modest amid low daily tornado probabilities from Storm Prediction Center outlooks, supporting trader emphasis on the 60–99 range while elevating <40 odds due to uncertainty over the remaining period. Differentiating factors include potential late-August tropical cyclone influences that could boost counts toward 100+ versus continued suppression yielding below-average totals, with model consensus and any new severe weather outbreaks serving as key near-term drivers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes