Tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel remain the dominant factor shaping expectations around Iranian airspace management. Following large-scale strikes in late February 2026 that prompted a near-total closure of the Tehran FIR, authorities partially reopened eastern routes in April and resumed limited commercial operations from Tehran by early May. Traders assess the risk of renewed broad suspensions, driven by potential military escalations or retaliatory measures, as moderate through the end of June. Scheduled diplomatic contacts, regional force deployments, and any new missile or drone activity could alter closure thresholds, while procedural NOTAMs and airline route adjustments continue to serve as leading indicators for market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
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